920
FXUS64 KTSA 071757
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1157 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1156 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
- COOLER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING,
THEN A RETURN TO WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
CLOUDS AND LINGERING SHOWERS (MAINLY SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL
AR) WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S. AS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS BECOME NEARLY CALM,
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL EFFICIENTLY. LOWS WILL REACH THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS, WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE IN THE COOLEST SPOTS. A FEW PATCHES
OF FOG MAY OCCUR, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SAW MORE RAINFALL WITH
THE LAST SYSTEM.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTH, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM, WITH 70S
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND 80S FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY. INITIALLY SLOWER
MOISTURE RETURN MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOCAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT
MOST AREAS SAW SUFFICIENT RAINFALL YESTERDAY TO LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. A WEAK AND TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY KICK OFF A
FEW SHOWERS MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
REMAIN BETTER, BUT ACCUMULATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE MINIMAL.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE. MEANWHILE, THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL ALSO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AS WELL AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
UNSTABLE AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF LIFT, WITH WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING. THUNDERSTORMS,
INCLUDING SOME SEVERE, ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN AFTER ITS PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BRIEFLY COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WILL THEN
REDEVELOP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE
OF RAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FOR NORTHEAST OK TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, WITH CLEAR
SKIES THEN DEVELOPING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TO VERY LOW
CEILINGS (IFR) MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY FOR ALL AREAS AT
5-10 MPH AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NEARLY
CALM TONIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW
AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY NEAR AREAS
WHERE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRED YESTERDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 56 37 73 53 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 64 40 74 52 / 30 20 0 0
MLC 58 38 74 54 / 30 10 0 10
BVO 56 31 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 60 33 71 50 / 20 10 0 0
BYV 62 36 70 51 / 20 0 0 0
MKO 56 36 71 50 / 30 0 0 0
MIO 54 35 70 49 / 0 0 0 0
F10 56 37 73 51 / 30 0 0 0
HHW 67 42 73 54 / 70 30 0 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...06
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