407
FXUS64 KTSA 072340
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
540 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 538 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
- COOLER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING,
THEN A RETURN TO WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
CLOUDS AND LINGERING SHOWERS (MAINLY SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL
AR) WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S. AS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS BECOME NEARLY CALM,
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL EFFICIENTLY. LOWS WILL REACH THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS, WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE IN THE COOLEST SPOTS. A FEW PATCHES
OF FOG MAY OCCUR, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SAW MORE RAINFALL WITH
THE LAST SYSTEM.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTH, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM, WITH 70S
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND 80S FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY. INITIALLY SLOWER
MOISTURE RETURN MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOCAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT
MOST AREAS SAW SUFFICIENT RAINFALL YESTERDAY TO LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. A WEAK AND TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY KICK OFF A
FEW SHOWERS MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
REMAIN BETTER, BUT ACCUMULATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE MINIMAL.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE. MEANWHILE, THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL ALSO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AS WELL AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
UNSTABLE AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF LIFT, WITH WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING. THUNDERSTORMS,
INCLUDING SOME SEVERE, ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN AFTER ITS PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BRIEFLY COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WILL THEN
REDEVELOP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE
OF RAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN ACROSS SE OK INTO NW AR AND WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE TO AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE AT TIMES. GUIDANCE VARIES ON OVERALL COVERAGE AND DURATION
OF IMPACTS AND FORECAST WILL RETAIN A MENTION OF LIGHT FOG AT MOST
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 37 73 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 40 74 52 82 / 20 0 0 30
MLC 38 74 54 83 / 10 0 10 20
BVO 31 73 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 33 71 50 80 / 10 0 0 20
BYV 36 70 51 77 / 0 0 0 20
MKO 36 71 50 81 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 35 70 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
F10 37 73 51 83 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 42 73 54 76 / 30 0 20 40
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07
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