975
FXUS64 KTSA 080414
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1014 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1011 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
- COOLER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING,
THEN A RETURN TO WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
CLOUDS AND LINGERING SHOWERS (MAINLY SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL
AR) WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S. AS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS BECOME NEARLY CALM,
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL EFFICIENTLY. LOWS WILL REACH THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS, WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE IN THE COOLEST SPOTS. A FEW PATCHES
OF FOG MAY OCCUR, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SAW MORE RAINFALL WITH
THE LAST SYSTEM.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTH, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM, WITH 70S
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND 80S FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY. INITIALLY SLOWER
MOISTURE RETURN MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOCAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT
MOST AREAS SAW SUFFICIENT RAINFALL YESTERDAY TO LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. A WEAK AND TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY KICK OFF A
FEW SHOWERS MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
REMAIN BETTER, BUT ACCUMULATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE MINIMAL.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE. MEANWHILE, THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL ALSO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AS WELL AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
UNSTABLE AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF LIFT, WITH WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING. THUNDERSTORMS,
INCLUDING SOME SEVERE, ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN AFTER ITS PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BRIEFLY COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WILL THEN
REDEVELOP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE
OF RAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW IN OVERALL COVERAGE. AS SUCH THE FORECAST WILL RETAIN THE
CHANCE OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS, OTHERWISE RETURNING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 37 72 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 40 73 49 81 / 20 0 10 30
MLC 38 73 53 83 / 10 0 10 20
BVO 31 72 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 33 72 49 79 / 10 0 0 20
BYV 36 70 50 78 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 36 70 49 81 / 0 0 10 10
MIO 35 68 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
F10 37 72 50 83 / 0 0 10 10
HHW 42 72 53 77 / 30 0 20 40
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07
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