532
FXUS64 KTSA 081124
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
624 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING A LIGHT FREEZE FOR A
FEW AREAS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
ON THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
LATEST IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK AND FAR NORTHWEST AR. HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT, RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. LATEST GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH THE SREF AND HREF SHOW A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT, MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR WHERE THE MOST RAIN HAS FALLEN
RECENTLY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SCOOT TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND
NORTHWEST AR, BUT MAY BECOME BREEZY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS NORTH OF I-44, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH THROUGH SUNSET. A
SMALL WINDOW OF ENHANCED FIRE SPREAD RATES MAY OCCUR NORTH OF I-44
AS THE WINDS PICK UP, BUT WITH RECENT RAINS, SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT OR COMPLETELY SATURATED AND SHOULD REALLY LIMIT THE
FIRE WEATHER/SPREAD POTENTIAL, BUT IT IS WORTH MENTIONING.
OTHERWISE, DAYTIME SUNDAY SHOULD BE HAZARD-AND-IMPACT-FREE, WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR AS A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE ON THE RISE SUNDAY NIGHT, DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ONLY RISE
INTO THE LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. WITH ONLY LIMITED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE
NOT EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARMER THAN TONIGHT, WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S UNDERNEATH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
MONDAY, MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL
AR. BY THE AFTERNOON, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO FAR
NORTHWEST AR. BOTH INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA, AND THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE
(<10% CHANCE OF A SEVERE WARNING ISSUED) OF ISOLATED STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, AS WELL AS
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. REGARDLESS, SEVERE
CHANCE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY LOW, BUT NON-ZERO. ELSEWHERE, SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN
TEMPERATURES SPIKING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S (COOLER IN AREAS
WHERE THERE’S MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION). AT LEAST LIMITED
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK AND
NORTHWEST AR MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH RECENT RAINS MAY DAMPER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SOME. TRENDS IN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR MONDAY.
ROBUST MID-LEVEL CLOSED-OFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO BY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG LIFTING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO
LIFT CLOSER TO OK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS A VORTICITY MAX EJECTS AHEAD OF
THE LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY,
STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE ELEVATED, BUT WILL
STILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE, POTENTIALLY DROPPING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM. BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, A MESSY AND CONDITIONAL SEVERE ENVIRONMENT WILL SETUP
ACROSS THE AREA. LIFT, INSTABILITY, SHEAR, AND MOISTURE WILL ALL
BE IN PLACE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE, SURFACE-BASED, THUNDERSTORMS, BUT MAY HIGHLY DEPEND ON
STORMS THAT OCCUR DURING THE MORNING. DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FINE-TUNED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST MEDIUM
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, THERE WILL ALSO BE A HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS WELL.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE (THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE) FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN FALL TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING NEAR THE OK/KS AND MO/AR BORDERS.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS PROBABLE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
PERIODS OF FG/BR WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACTS SITES THIS MORNING WITH
IFR TO LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z. BY MID MORNING, VSBYS ARE
LIKELY TO IMPROVE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK
SITES, BUT GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS. THE LLJ WILL
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND LLWS IS EXPECTED FOR MOST SITES IN NE OK
AND NW AR THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 72 51 84 66 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 73 49 81 64 / 0 10 30 10
MLC 73 53 83 66 / 0 10 20 10
BVO 72 47 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 72 49 79 63 / 0 0 20 10
BYV 70 50 78 64 / 0 0 10 10
MKO 70 49 81 64 / 0 10 10 0
MIO 68 48 80 64 / 0 0 0 0
F10 72 50 83 64 / 0 10 10 0
HHW 72 53 77 64 / 0 20 40 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...43
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