033
FXUS64 KTSA 082309
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 606 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING A LIGHT FREEZE FOR A
FEW AREAS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON
THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER TONIGHT, WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS FURTHER INTO MONDAY, WITH A VERY WARM DAY
ON TAP. IT APPEARS A SW-NE ORIENTED DRY LINE WILL INTERSECT
NORTHEAST OK. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND
SOMEWHAT LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE 50S FOR THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA (TOWARDS OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES). TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S,
AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL
THAT A WEAK FEATURE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST OK MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS INCONSISTENT BETWEEN
GUIDANCE, BUT MAINTAINED AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THOSE AREAS.
OVERALL, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW, BUT SOME LOCALIZED
POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP ON THE DRY (NORTHWEST) SIDE OF THE DRY LINE
FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY MILD TUESDAY MORNING, WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD
BREAK OUT WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK, BUT THE MAIN EVENT WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE SOMETIME DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DURING THIS PERIOD
ROBUST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL INDUCE LIFT WITHIN A WARM, MOIST,
AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN. THESE FACTORS SHOULD PROMOTE
STORM ACTIVITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, BUT THE SPATIAL EXTENT AND
INTENSITY WILL DEPENDING SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS
EARLIER IN THE DAY. IF CLOUD COVER IS THICK WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
EARLY ACTIVITY, IT WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL LATER IN THE DAY.
WITH THAT SAID, IN THE MORE CONVECTIVELY OPTIMAL SETUP, SURFACE
BASED STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH ALL SEVERE MODES
POSSIBLE.
A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE LOWER BY THEN. TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY BE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.50 INCHES, BUT LOCALIZED ACCUMULATION COULD
EXCEED 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS.
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED, WITH A FEW
AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING A FREEZE THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY. NO ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
ONGOING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO SE OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR
BEFORE SUNRISE. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS LOW
CLOUD SHIELD AND PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ERODING. THE
NORTHWARD ADVANCE IS UNCERTAIN AND THE VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
EXPECTING MIXING DEPTH INCREASE SOON AFTER SUNRISE LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO NE OK. GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOP AREA WIDE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 53 84 66 79 / 0 0 0 50
FSM 50 81 64 80 / 0 20 20 60
MLC 54 81 66 78 / 10 20 10 60
BVO 46 85 61 82 / 0 0 0 50
FYV 49 79 63 78 / 0 10 20 60
BYV 51 77 64 79 / 0 10 10 60
MKO 51 79 64 77 / 0 10 0 60
MIO 50 80 64 79 / 0 0 0 50
F10 53 82 64 77 / 0 10 0 60
HHW 54 76 64 75 / 20 50 20 50
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07
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