621
FXUS64 KTSA 091741
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1241 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
- WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY; LIMITED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL,
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
- A LIGHT FREEZE MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW AREAS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR WILL
END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. A DRY LINE WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHEAST OK, WITH THE
WARMEST WEATHER NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE. FOR THESE
AREAS, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO
WHERE THE WINDIEST WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF WARM,
RELATIVELY DRY, AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL PROMOTE SOME LIMITED FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE DRY LINE, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE
HIGHER AND TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER. WITH THAT SAID, HIGHS WILL
STILL BE QUITE WARM, RISING TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. CLEARING IS
ALSO EXPECTED HERE, BUT NOT TO THE SAME DEGREE AS NORTHEAST OK, WITH
SOME LEVEL OF CLOUDINESS PERSISTING.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES. DUE TO MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALL NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD, WITH WIDESPREAD 60S. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK, BUT A FEW SHOWERS IN FAR
SOUTHEAST OK IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES. DEEP MOISTURE WILL ENVELOPE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE DRY LINE TO THE WEST. CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN
AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF A JET MAX THAT WILL RAPIDLY ADVECT/EXPAND INTO
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE ADDITIONAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING DOES APPEAR
TO BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
GIVEN AMPLE LIFT, SHEAR, AND INSTABILITY. WITH THAT SAID, THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE STORMS THAT FIRE ALONG THE DRY LINE WELL TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE SEEMS TO
BE A BETTER CONSENSUS FOR STORMS TO MORPH INTO A LINE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OK, WHICH WILL THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST AR. FOR NORTHEAST
OK COVERAGE LOOKS LOWER, WITH STORMS PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ISOLATED.
EITHER WAY, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT HAIL AND WIND
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY FAVORED. CORRIDORS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OK INTO NORTHWEST AR, WHERE LOCALLY A
FEW INCHES COULD FALL UNDER STRONGER STORMS.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH, ENDING THE RAIN THREAT FOR THE TIME. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE COOL, WITH THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS APPROACHING FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING. WARMER AND DRY WEATHER
WILL THEN RESUME INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH AND EXITS THE CWA. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP
LINGERING IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS SHOULD ALSO EXIT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE. ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA,
MOSTLY CLEAR TO A FEW MID CLOUDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL MVFR CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE CWA. FOR
NOW THE GREATER POTENTIAL IS OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL TO REACH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF
SITES AS WELL LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OUT
GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST, DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
KFSM WHERE A MORE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 85 66 83 56 / 0 0 40 80
FSM 80 64 82 63 / 30 10 50 90
MLC 82 66 80 60 / 10 10 50 100
BVO 85 61 84 51 / 0 0 40 80
FYV 77 63 79 56 / 20 10 40 100
BYV 77 65 79 57 / 10 0 30 90
MKO 81 66 80 57 / 10 0 40 90
MIO 80 64 81 54 / 0 0 40 90
F10 84 66 80 56 / 10 0 50 90
HHW 79 65 78 62 / 30 10 60 90
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20
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