338
FXUS64 KTSA 100445
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO THE AREA TODAY (TUESDAY) INTO WEDNESDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND A LIGHT FREEZE MAY
OCCUR FOR A FEW AREAS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THURSDAY MORNING.
- POTENTIALLY LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERIODICALLY THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW, WITH ROBUST
LIFT AND VORTICITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS, WILL MOVE ONSHORE
OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL BE MONITORING
FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT EJECTS OFF
THE LOW AND PUSHES AHEAD IT. AS IT DRIFTS OVER SOUTHEAST OK, A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP FROM THIS FEATURE, WITH
CONVECTION MOVING INTO WEST-CENTRAL AR AROUND SUNRISE. THE GFS HAS
BEEN A PERSISTENT OUTLIER IN DEVELOPING MORE “ROBUST” CONVECTION
FROM THIS FEATURE THAT REALLY NO OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL SHOWS.
THEREFORE, FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THE GFS VERIFYING IS LOW, BUT
WILL MAINTAIN NON-ZERO (20-30%) POPS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST-CENTRAL AR STARTING AROUND 12Z/7AM. IF A STORM IS ABLE TO
GET ORGANIZED, IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN BY MID-LATE MORNING, WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
LATEST FORECAST MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAIN SETUP TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
EVENING, AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY SURGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH,
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING BETWEEN 65-70 F ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND
WESTERN AR IN THE AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN SOUTHWEST TX BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON, QUICKLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST TX BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
ASSUMING THIS VERIFIES, GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE THIS COMPLEX
MAY SIDESWIPE PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR,
WITH THE BULK OF ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINING SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND
CLOSELY, AS A SLIGHTLY NORTHERN SHIFT WOULD INTRODUCE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR.
OTHERWISE, MUCH OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
MORE ROBUST AND SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
ACROSS WEST TX, ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD
FRONT, BY MID-AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS IN TX WILL CLUSTER AND
EVENTUALLY A QLCS LINE OF STORMS WILL FORM BY EARLY EVENING. AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DRIFTS FARTHER EAST, THIS LINE OF STRONG AND
SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
TX THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS THIS LINE OF STORM EXPANDING AND SPREADING NORTHWARD SOME
WITH TIME, WITH STORMS IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHEAST OK SOMETIME
AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE QLCS IS FORECAST TO HOLD STRONG
AND WILL MOVE INTO WEST-CENTRAL AR AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT BEFORE
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
LINE OF STORMS, INCLUDING A COUPLE OF TORNADOES, BUT LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ALTHOUGH HI-
RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SOUTH
OF I-40 TUESDAY NIGHT, A FEW MODELS STILL SHOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING NORTH OF I-40 TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES. CORRIDORS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK INTO NORTHWEST AR, WHERE
LOCALLY A FEW INCHES COULD FALL UNDER STRONGER STORMS. BUT
OVERALL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES, LOCALLY
HIGHER, ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
NORTH OF I-40.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING OR EARLY ON IN THE AFTERNOON AS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE PRETTY GUSTY BEHIND
THE FRONT, WITH ANTICIPATED GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES, THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAYTIME BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NOTICEABLE AS TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE 50S OR LOWER 60S BEHIND IT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
THEIR DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE BEFORE NOON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. FOG POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. A LIGHT FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR THE OK/KS AND MO/AR BORDERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AND WILL PICKUP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS EAST AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, MAINTAINING BREEZY WINDS. WARM, DRY, AND PERIODIC BREEZY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
SATURDAY, WITH PERHAPS SOME LIMITED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON THE
BREEZIER DAYS.
NEXT BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THIS TIME, BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO STAY CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE DETAILS TO COME LATER.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY REMAIN ACROSS FAR NW AR OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREAFTER
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO EXPAND NORTHWARD WITH MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS
MUCH OF SE OK AND NW AR WHICH PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NE OK. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON WITH THICKENING
MID CLOUD WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGHER STORM CHANCES JUST BEYOND
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 66 84 57 66 / 0 30 70 40
FSM 64 82 63 74 / 10 50 80 70
MLC 66 80 61 73 / 10 50 90 40
BVO 61 86 50 65 / 0 30 70 40
FYV 63 80 58 69 / 10 40 80 70
BYV 65 79 58 69 / 0 20 80 70
MKO 66 80 57 69 / 0 30 80 50
MIO 64 81 53 65 / 0 20 80 70
F10 66 81 57 71 / 0 30 80 30
HHW 65 77 61 74 / 10 60 80 60
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...07
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