962
FXUS64 KTSA 101443
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
943 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 943 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO THE AREA TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND A LIGHT FREEZE MAY
OCCUR FOR A FEW AREAS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THURSDAY MORNING.
- POTENTIALLY LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERIODICALLY THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THE MAIN FORECAST UPDATES THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN TO REDUCE AND
LIMIT IN AREA THE POPS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TODAY, WITH TRENDS
IN CAM OUTPUT BEING TOWARD LESSER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY THAN
EARLIER DEPICTED. AREA RADARS THIS MORNING ARE SHOWING SOME HIGHER
BASED ECHOES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WHICH
COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHTER SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING. THE CHANCE OF LIGHTNING WITH THE MORNING ACTIVITY IS
LOW BUT NON-ZERO SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION THROUGH 18Z.
THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH GIVEN ITS EFFECT
ON INSTABILITY. THE INSTABILITY AXIS INITIALLY DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA, EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WHERE THE
CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO THIN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF THIS
OCCURS FASTER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS
MAY BE MORE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING BEFORE THE MORE LIKELY LINE OF
STORMS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TIMING FOR THE
LINE OF STORMS REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE IN MID EVENING, WITH AREAS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AT THAT TIME.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW, WITH ROBUST
LIFT AND VORTICITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS, WILL MOVE ONSHORE
OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL BE MONITORING
FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT EJECTS OFF
THE LOW AND PUSHES AHEAD IT. AS IT DRIFTS OVER SOUTHEAST OK, A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP FROM THIS FEATURE, WITH
CONVECTION MOVING INTO WEST-CENTRAL AR AROUND SUNRISE. THE GFS HAS
BEEN A PERSISTENT OUTLIER IN DEVELOPING MORE ROBUST CONVECTION
FROM THIS FEATURE THAT REALLY NO OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL SHOWS.
THEREFORE, FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THE GFS VERIFYING IS LOW, BUT
WILL MAINTAIN NON-ZERO (20-30%) POPS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST-CENTRAL AR STARTING AROUND 12Z/7AM. IF A STORM IS ABLE TO
GET ORGANIZED, IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN BY MID-LATE MORNING, WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
LATEST FORECAST MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAIN SETUP TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
EVENING, AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY SURGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH,
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING BETWEEN 65-70 F ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND
WESTERN AR IN THE AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN SOUTHWEST TX BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON, QUICKLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST TX BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
ASSUMING THIS VERIFIES, GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE THIS COMPLEX
MAY SIDESWIPE PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR,
WITH THE BULK OF ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINING SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND
CLOSELY, AS A SLIGHTLY NORTHERN SHIFT WOULD INTRODUCE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR.
OTHERWISE, MUCH OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
MORE ROBUST AND SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
ACROSS WEST TX, ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD
FRONT, BY MID-AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS IN TX WILL CLUSTER AND
EVENTUALLY A QLCS LINE OF STORMS WILL FORM BY EARLY EVENING. AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DRIFTS FARTHER EAST, THIS LINE OF STRONG AND
SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
TX THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS THIS LINE OF STORM EXPANDING AND SPREADING NORTHWARD SOME
WITH TIME, WITH STORMS IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHEAST OK SOMETIME
AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE QLCS IS FORECAST TO HOLD STRONG
AND WILL MOVE INTO WEST-CENTRAL AR AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT BEFORE
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
LINE OF STORMS, INCLUDING A COUPLE OF TORNADOES, BUT LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ALTHOUGH HI-
RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SOUTH
OF I-40 TUESDAY NIGHT, A FEW MODELS STILL SHOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING NORTH OF I-40 TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES. CORRIDORS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK INTO NORTHWEST AR, WHERE
LOCALLY A FEW INCHES COULD FALL UNDER STRONGER STORMS. BUT
OVERALL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES, LOCALLY
HIGHER, ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
NORTH OF I-40.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING OR EARLY ON IN THE AFTERNOON AS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE PRETTY GUSTY BEHIND
THE FRONT, WITH ANTICIPATED GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES, THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAYTIME BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NOTICEABLE AS TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE 50S OR LOWER 60S BEHIND IT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
THEIR DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE BEFORE NOON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. FOG POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. A LIGHT FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR THE OK/KS AND MO/AR BORDERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AND WILL PICKUP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS EAST AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, MAINTAINING BREEZY WINDS. WARM, DRY, AND PERIODIC BREEZY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
SATURDAY, WITH PERHAPS SOME LIMITED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON THE
BREEZIER DAYS.
NEXT BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THIS TIME, BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO STAY CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE DETAILS TO COME LATER.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE 06Z TAFS.
MVFR CIGS ARE OVERSPREADING SE OK INTO NW AR WITH ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW-END VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SHORT-
TERM GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ON STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL AFT 00Z THIS
EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE BAND WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT SO HAVE INSERTED VCTS AND TEMPO MVFR TSRA AT THE
SITES DURING THE MOST FAVORED TIME WINDOW AT THAT PARTICULAR
LOCATION. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BACK OFF TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 84 57 60 37 / 20 60 40 0
FSM 82 63 69 39 / 30 90 70 0
MLC 80 61 67 38 / 30 90 40 0
BVO 86 50 57 31 / 20 50 40 0
FYV 80 58 64 34 / 30 90 70 0
BYV 79 58 65 36 / 20 80 70 0
MKO 80 57 64 36 / 20 80 50 0
MIO 81 53 59 34 / 20 60 70 0
F10 81 57 64 36 / 20 80 30 0
HHW 77 61 69 41 / 40 90 60 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page