017
FXUS64 KTSA 110346
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1046 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1050 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
- STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY AND A LIGHT FREEZE MAY
OCCUR FOR A FEW AREAS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THURSDAY MORNING.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY RETURN BY LATE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
ONGOING STORMS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED
SEVERE WEATHER RISK. THE BULK OF STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE EAST
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY, HOWEVER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OVERALL THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
END EARLY IN THE DAY WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THE OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO STRONGER WESTERN
CONUS RIDGING AND THE DOWNSTREAM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL FEATURE FAIRLY FREQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGES WITH
MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN IN THEIR ADVANCE. THE TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE COOLER TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A WARM UP LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF SATURDAY COLD FRONT. COOL DOWN AGAIN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE. PERIODIC GUSTY WINDS AND DRYING FINE FUELS WILL RAISE
GRASSLAND FIRE CONCERNS AT TIMES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS. A LINE OF
STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM MID EVENING TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG VRB
WIND GUSTS. AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AND INCREASE IN SPEED AND GUSTS
WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE FRONT AT MOST SITES, BUT SHOULD TREND TO VFR
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FOR OK TAF SITES, WITH MVFR HANGING ON
THROUGH LATER AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FOR AR TAF SITES.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 83 55 64 34 / 10 80 30 0
FSM 80 62 73 36 / 10 100 60 0
MLC 79 59 70 35 / 10 90 20 0
BVO 86 50 59 29 / 10 60 30 0
FYV 78 55 69 30 / 10 90 60 0
BYV 78 55 67 33 / 10 90 70 0
MKO 80 55 68 32 / 10 80 30 0
MIO 80 52 59 30 / 10 80 60 0
F10 81 55 68 34 / 10 80 20 0
HHW 78 61 73 37 / 10 90 40 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...67
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