627
FXUS64 KTSA 110602
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
102 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1050 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
- STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY AND A LIGHT FREEZE MAY
OCCUR FOR A FEW AREAS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THURSDAY MORNING.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY RETURN BY LATE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
ONGOING STORMS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED
SEVERE WEATHER RISK. THE BULK OF STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE EAST
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY, HOWEVER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OVERALL THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
END EARLY IN THE DAY WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THE OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO STRONGER WESTERN
CONUS RIDGING AND THE DOWNSTREAM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL FEATURE FAIRLY FREQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGES WITH
MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN IN THEIR ADVANCE. THE TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE COOLER TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A WARM UP LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF SATURDAY COLD FRONT. COOL DOWN AGAIN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE. PERIODIC GUSTY WINDS AND DRYING FINE FUELS WILL RAISE
GRASSLAND FIRE CONCERNS AT TIMES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
IN THE NEAR TERM, A BAND OF STORMS WILL BRING PERIODIC SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO THE NW AR TERMINALS. STORMS WILL EXIST THE REGION BY
09Z. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING, USHERING IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO LOW-END VFR
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING THIS EVENING AS WINDS SUBSIDE.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 64 34 65 44 / 30 0 0 0
FSM 73 36 65 41 / 60 0 0 0
MLC 70 35 66 45 / 20 0 0 0
BVO 59 29 64 40 / 30 0 0 0
FYV 69 30 63 41 / 60 0 0 0
BYV 67 33 60 46 / 70 0 0 0
MKO 68 32 63 43 / 30 0 0 0
MIO 59 30 60 43 / 60 0 0 0
F10 68 34 65 45 / 20 0 0 0
HHW 73 37 63 41 / 40 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30
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