171
FXUS64 KTSA 111736
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1236 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1236 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
- RAIN CHANCES EXIT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
- LIGHT FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY MORNING.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
AS OF MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED
FROM PITTSBURG CO TO CARROLL CO, WHILE THE ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE MID LEVEL TROF AXIS TRAILED A FEW COUNTIES
BEHIND. ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, A NARROW LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS
HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WERE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST. AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO EXISTS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY, THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINED QUITE
LIMITED. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE EXITING THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO LOCALLY AROUND 40
MPH WERE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION AND WEAKEN THE WINDS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, ONCE THE MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS DEPARTS TO THE EAST, CLOUD COVER SCATTERS OUT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR AND LIGHT WINDS FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
FALL INTO THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA, WHILE THE NORMAL COOL
LOCATIONS GET DOWN TO/JUST BELOW FREEZING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
OFFICIALLY, WE ARE STILL JUST OUTSIDE OF THE BEGINNING OF THE
GROWING SEASON. THUS, WILL HOLD OFF ON FREEZE HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE SOUTH AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FROM TO SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN
OF SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND TEMPS BACK IN THE 60S.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE 15 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION, CLIPPING THE CWA. A LACK OF MOISTURE
RETURN SHOULD KEEP THIS BOUNDARY DRY WHILE IT MOVES OVER THE CWA
FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY RETURN AND BECOME GUSTY SATURDAY CREATING
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
70S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER, MORE DEFINED,
COLD FRONT ENTERS/SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE LOOKS TO BE A WINDOW WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION COULD CREATE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY. ANY ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND LOOKS TO EXIT SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE
DEPARTING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS. IF THE DEPARTURE OF THIS WAVE
IS DELAYED, THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWER DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING
WINTRY PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT.
ONE THING TO NOTE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY, WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AIDING IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. LIKE
THE FRONT TODAY, TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ARE
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 30S WITH PARTS OF THE CWA NEAR/SLIGHTLY
BELOW FREEZING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT TUESDAY WITH AN EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1362 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS, CLEARING ALL OF
THEM BUT FSM AT THE OUTSET OF THESE TAFS. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS
REMAIN EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, AS WELL AS A LIKELY BRIEF PERIOD
OF IFR CEILINGS ONGOING AT XNA/ROG. A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH MAY LEAD TO PRECIP ON STATION AT FSM BUT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY REDUCTION IS EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN NE OK AND
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AT MLC AND THE NW AR SITES, WITH SPEEDS
DROPPING TO 10 KTS OR LESS FOR THE MOST PART THEREAFTER. IMPROVING
CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 34 65 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 36 65 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 36 65 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 29 65 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 30 61 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 32 60 46 68 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 33 64 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 31 60 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
F10 33 63 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 37 63 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...22
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