971
FXUS64 KTSA 120424
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1124 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1116 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
- LIGHT FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY MORNING.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN THURSDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA AND THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS FOR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
COOLER AIR HAS MOVED IN AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ACTIVE
WEATHER TO THE AREA HAS DEPARTED TO THE EAST. TONIGHT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF.
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED, WITH PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SEEING A LIGHT FREEZE.
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING, WITH A
QUICK RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WHERE REMNANT COLD AIR WILL HOLD ON A BIT MORE
EFFECTIVELY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL FEATURE NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT
WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING WELL SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS
WILL ENCOURAGE THE RAPID SUCCESSION OF STORM SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH.
THE UNUSUALLY LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MORE
OR LESS KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. WARM,
DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THAT TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE EACH DAY, REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S ON FRIDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY.
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BUCKLE THE PATTERN
SUNDAY, SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE SPEED AND
TRAJECTORY WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE AIR MOVING IN WILL
BE QUITE COLD, BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WELL TIMED WITH THE SHOWER
CHANCE, SO PRESUMABLY IT WILL JUST BE RAIN. A FEW FLURRIES COULD
MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BUT WILL CAUSE NO IMPACTS. THE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT
APPEARS TO BE NOTABLE. THERE IS ALREADY GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT TO
SUGGEST GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH MAY OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL TARRY INTO MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING
LOOKS QUITE COLD, WITH A WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
THOSE WHO STARTED GARDENS EARLY WILL PROBABLY NEED TO TAKE STEPS
TO PROTECT TENDER PLANTS, ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH. COOL AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ALREADY CONFIDENT IN A VERY LARGE
AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM PATTERN DEVELOPING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SURGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE NIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AND
BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 56 33 64 44 / MMM 0 0 0
FSM 70 35 63 42 / MMM 0 0 0
MLC 67 35 65 44 / MMM 0 0 0
BVO 53 29 64 40 / MMM 0 0 0
FYV 67 30 61 42 / MMM 0 0 0
BYV 62 31 59 45 / MMM 0 0 0
MKO 59 32 63 43 / MMM 0 0 0
MIO 53 30 61 42 / MMM 0 0 0
F10 62 33 64 44 / MMM 0 0 0
HHW 70 37 63 41 / MMM 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...67
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page