244
FLUS44 KTSA 122235
HWOTSA
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
535 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-132245-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
535 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
DAY ONE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.
FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM OKEMAH TO TULSA TO VINITA.
ONSET...ONGOING.
DISCUSSION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING MAINLY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH LIKELY THROUGH
AROUND SUNSET. THE GUSTY WINDS WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 15 TO
25 PERCENT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF OSAGE
AND PAWNEE COUNTIES, WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS
HUMIDITY EVENTUALLY RISES ABOVE 50 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AND WIND
SPEEDS DECREASE.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM...WINTER WEATHER...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. MOISTURE RETURN
WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES HIGHER, LIMITING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AND
LIFT WITH THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A NARROW BAND OF STORMS
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. THERE IS A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE
STORMS AS THEY MARCH QUICKLY EAST, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT.
BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP
UP QUICKLY AND WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT WIDESPREAD 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION. THE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE DROPPING HUMIDITY TO
YIELD CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO ELEVATED FIRE SPREAD, DESPITE THE
FACT THAT COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING A RAIN-
SNOW MIX TO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BUT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM, WHICH COULD CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE TEENS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page