878
FXUS64 KTSA 261705
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1205 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HEAT THURSDAY.
- STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH STRONG
NORTH WINDS AND LOW RAIN CHANCES. WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ANY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE SPREAD RATES FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. CRITICAL SPREAD RATES
(>280FT/MIN) MAY BE OBSERVED FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES. HUMIDITIES WILL
LIKELY BE A TAD HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DAYS DUE TO
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT VERY DRY FUELS AND NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MAKE UP FOR THIS. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND BURNING IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. SOUTH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY EVENING, WITH A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH
POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA-KANSAS BORDER. WINDS SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY BY LATE EVENING, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A TIGHT TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE STRONG NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 45 MPH FOR MUCH
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AR AND SE
OK. AS A RESULT, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NE OK. THESE STRONG
POST-FRONTAL WINDS ALONG WITH THE SHARP WIND SHIFT WILL
COMPLICATE ANY ONGOING FIRE SUPPRESSION EFFORTS. DESPITE
DECREASING TEMPERATURES, STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL FOSTER YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WETTING RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY, THOUGH SOME AREAS
COULD RECEIVE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS,
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S...POTENTIALLY NEAR FREEZING ALONG
THE OKLAHOMA-KANSAS BORDER. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY QUIET AND
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE SATURDAY (60S) BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON
SUNDAY (UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S) AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
AREA. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAIN
OPPORTUNITIES NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN US TROUGHING DEVELOPS.
GUIDANCE VARIES IN REGARDS TO SPECIFIC DETAILS, BUT WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND AT TUL, THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTERNOON GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE WILL BE PREVALENT AT THE NE OK TERMINALS,
AND FROM THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE AT MLC AND THE W AR SITES. LLWS
WILL EXIST AT ALL SITES FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. A WIND SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEED/GUSTS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS, LIKELY ABOVE 30 KTS, AT THE E
OK SITES FRIDAY MORNING. A MULTI-HOUR PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, IMPACTING ALL THE
TERMINALS. BVO IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH A LOWER CHANCE AT TUL/RVS. A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
EXISTS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AT THE NE OK AND NW AR
SITES, BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED CHANCE AND LIMITED EXPECTED IMPACT,
WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 94 52 61 37 / 0 20 20 0
FSM 92 60 69 40 / 0 10 40 0
MLC 90 58 65 43 / 0 10 20 0
BVO 96 48 61 32 / 0 40 10 0
FYV 91 51 62 36 / 0 20 50 0
BYV 89 51 59 36 / 0 30 50 0
MKO 90 55 63 40 / 0 10 20 0
MIO 90 49 58 33 / 0 50 30 0
F10 91 53 62 41 / 0 10 20 0
HHW 86 60 72 49 / 0 0 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ054>067.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
OKZ054>057-059>062-064>067.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...22
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