221
FXUS64 KTSA 262346
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
646 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 642 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HEAT THURSDAY.
- STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH STRONG
NORTH WINDS AND LOW RAIN CHANCES. WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ANY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE SPREAD RATES FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. CRITICAL SPREAD RATES
(>280FT/MIN) MAY BE OBSERVED FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES. HUMIDITIES WILL
LIKELY BE A TAD HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DAYS DUE TO
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT VERY DRY FUELS AND NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MAKE UP FOR THIS. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND BURNING IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. SOUTH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY EVENING, WITH A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH
POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA-KANSAS BORDER. WINDS SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY BY LATE EVENING, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A TIGHT TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE STRONG NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 45 MPH FOR MUCH
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AR AND SE
OK. AS A RESULT, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NE OK. THESE STRONG
POST-FRONTAL WINDS ALONG WITH THE SHARP WIND SHIFT WILL
COMPLICATE ANY ONGOING FIRE SUPPRESSION EFFORTS. DESPITE
DECREASING TEMPERATURES, STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL FOSTER YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WETTING RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY, THOUGH SOME AREAS
COULD RECEIVE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS,
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S...POTENTIALLY NEAR FREEZING ALONG
THE OKLAHOMA-KANSAS BORDER. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY QUIET AND
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE SATURDAY (60S) BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON
SUNDAY (UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S) AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
AREA. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAIN
OPPORTUNITIES NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN US TROUGHING DEVELOPS.
GUIDANCE VARIES IN REGARDS TO SPECIFIC DETAILS, BUT WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH LLWS
DEVELOPING AT ALL SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH INITIALLY VFR CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR BY
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEFORE
INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. GUSTS WILL REACH 25-35 KNOTS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
DAY FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 52 61 37 66 / 20 20 0 0
FSM 60 69 40 66 / 10 40 0 0
MLC 58 65 43 67 / 10 20 0 0
BVO 48 61 32 65 / 40 10 0 0
FYV 51 62 36 65 / 20 50 0 0
BYV 51 59 36 63 / 30 50 0 0
MKO 55 63 40 65 / 10 20 0 0
MIO 49 58 33 64 / 50 30 0 0
F10 53 62 41 66 / 10 20 0 0
HHW 60 72 49 64 / 0 20 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ054>067.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
OKZ054>057-059>062-064>067.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05
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