714
FXUS64 KTSA 280446
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WILL COME TO AN END IN THE COMING HOURS AND SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S. LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL RAISE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MAINLY OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY DESPITE
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44 WHERE SPRING GREENUP HAS
BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
80S EACH DAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING, WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AS IT
APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK, CONTINUING THE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THAT TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WIDESPREAD VFR CEILINGS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS WHICH WILL STEADILY SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH
WINDS BECOMING LESS GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
AREA WIDE SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 37 66 49 80 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 39 67 44 80 / 60 0 0 0
MLC 44 68 48 80 / 50 0 0 0
BVO 32 65 44 80 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 34 65 41 77 / 20 0 0 0
BYV 35 62 44 75 / 20 0 0 0
MKO 39 66 46 79 / 30 0 0 0
MIO 33 64 45 76 / 20 0 0 0
F10 40 68 47 80 / 30 0 0 0
HHW 49 64 47 78 / 30 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07
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