228
FXUS64 KTSA 281102
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 558 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WILL COME TO AN END IN THE COMING HOURS AND SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S. LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL RAISE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MAINLY OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY DESPITE
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44 WHERE SPRING GREEN-UP
HAS BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AND 80S EACH DAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING, WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AS IT
APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK, CONTINUING THE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THAT TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. EAST WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT
IMPACTFUL TODAY. SCT TO BKN MID CLOUD SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATER
TODAY. LATE TONIGHT, MOISTURE RETURN ATOP THE COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN THE OVERSPREAD OF LOWER CLOUD FROM S/SW TO
N/NE. AT THIS TIME, THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW VFR
RANGE.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 66 49 80 63 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 67 44 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 68 48 80 62 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 65 44 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 65 41 77 58 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 62 44 75 61 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 66 46 79 61 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 64 45 76 61 / 0 0 0 0
F10 68 47 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 64 47 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30
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