451
FXUS64 KTSA 290510
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1210 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1209 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK,
WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY LEADING TO UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH OSAGE AND
PAWNEE COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEING THE AREA OF GREATEST
CONCERN. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S, WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MILES AN HOUR AT
TIMES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY, WITH
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA POSSIBLY SEEING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MILES AN HOUR. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED AS A
RESULT. TUESDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH PERHAPS JUST
A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER AND WINDS MAY BE JUST A BIT LIGHTER AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE
TREND IN THE LATEST DATA IS FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WHICH MAY DELAY MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY
EVENING, SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE, WITH AT LEAST A
LOW THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AWAITING A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS IMPULSE WILL LIKELY REIGNITE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, WITH BOTH A SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL SOMEWHERE, DEPENDENT ON JUST WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS STALLED.
THE FRONT LIKELY PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH
BOTH SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING POSSIBLE AGAIN.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE NEXT WEEKEND ONCE
THIS SECOND SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREVALENT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING ATOP THE COOL SURFACE LAYER OVERNIGHT
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUD CIGS TO MOST SITES, BUT BASED
ON CURRENT OBS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE CIGS
ARE NOW, LOW-END VFR IS EXPECTED. CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE
MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME STRONGER AND GUSTY BY
MID-MORNING SUNDAY, BEFORE BACKING OFF IN THE EVENING.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 81 63 87 67 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 81 59 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 81 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 81 60 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 77 59 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 74 61 83 65 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 80 61 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 77 61 84 66 / 0 0 0 0
F10 81 62 84 64 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 79 59 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30
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