848
FXUS64 KTSA 300454
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RAISE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK,
WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
ANOTHER WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP MONDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS DESPITE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
AREAS NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44 FROM 10 AM-9 PM MONDAY,
WHERE A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 40 MILES AN HOUR LOOK LIKELY,
SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY, BUT WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PERHAPS KNOCKING BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
PEAK WIND GUSTS BACK SLIGHTLY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS NEAR THE
KANASS BORDER FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BETTER STORM
CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OR NORTH OF THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
DRIFT INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
AT LEAST A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY, THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANONTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES, COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS, THOUGH STILL REMAINING BREEZY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AN
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS KFSM, WHERE EASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS
WELL TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. DURING THE DAY MONDAY, SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN WITH GUSTS OF 20-35KT MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO VARY FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO
SCATTERED VFR, WITH A LOW POTENTIAL OF A FEW LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 63 87 67 86 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 59 87 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 63 84 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 58 89 65 87 / 0 0 0 20
FYV 59 84 62 84 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 62 82 64 82 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 62 85 64 85 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 62 84 65 83 / 0 0 0 20
F10 62 84 64 83 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 59 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ054>057-
059>062-064.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20
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