823
FXUS64 KTSA 302327
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ELEVATED.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK,
WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
WEATHER.
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
ANOTHER WINDY DAY, FEATURING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, IS IN
PROGRESS, WITH GUSTS ALREADY THIS MORNING IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE IN THE WIND ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT RECORD LEVELS TODAY, BUT
WITH LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 30 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE
AREAWIDE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ONCE
AGAIN. FORECAST GRASSLAND FIRE SPREAD RATES ACROSS WESTERN OSAGE
AND PAWNEE COUNTIES CONTINUE TO BE ON THE UPPER END OF THE NEAR
CRITICAL RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
LEVEL JET WILL KEEP SPEEDS AND GUSTS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
COMBO OF THE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY AND NOW,
IT LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY AS WELL. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST AGAIN TUESDAY, LEADING
TO GRASSLAND FIRE SPREAD RATES AGAIN INTO THE NEAR CRITICAL RANGE
IN MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IN ADDITION
TO THE CONTINUED NON-CRITICAL MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SERVING
AS A LIMIT ON THE OVERALL THREAT, THE EXPECTATION OF INCREASED
CLOUD COVER TOMORROW WILL ALSO LIMIT IT.
A COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO APPROACH AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA VERY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, ALTHOUGH CURRENT TRENDS POINT TOWARD A MORE
NORTHERN STALL POINT THAN AT THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AIDED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE EVENTUAL NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY, AND ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN CONTINUED VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. SIMILAR LIMITS ON THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO
TUESDAY WILL EXIST FOR WEDNESDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR STORMS. AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST WITH THESE STORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, THE THREAT FOR FLOODING APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME. THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA, WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL, WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER MOISTURE TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GUST 20-30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO RESULT IN LLWS LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 67 86 66 82 / 0 10 40 40
FSM 62 86 63 85 / 0 0 10 20
MLC 65 85 66 84 / 0 0 20 20
BVO 63 88 61 81 / 0 10 50 50
FYV 61 83 62 82 / 0 0 20 30
BYV 65 83 64 82 / 0 0 20 30
MKO 64 83 65 82 / 0 0 20 30
MIO 65 83 63 81 / 0 10 50 50
F10 64 84 66 83 / 0 10 20 30
HHW 61 82 63 83 / 0 0 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ054>057-059>062-
064.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05
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