141
FXUS64 KTSA 011408
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 908 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED.
- POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN INCREASES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 908 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SW
OK TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OKC METRO AND THEN NORTH FROM THERE TO
NEAR PONCA CITY. LOOKING ALOFT, A VERY SUBTLE WAVE (POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVE RELATED FROM LAST NIGHT) WAS NEAR THE RED RIVER, AHEAD
OF A LARGER SCALE UPPER WAVE STILL BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
WHILE SIGNALS AMONGST THE LATEST CAMS ARE MIXED, SOME SPOTTY OR
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN OK INTO NORTHWEST AR DURING THE DAY TODAY, BUT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO THE FRONT. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT IS
NOT ZERO WITH THIS ACTIVITY, DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG YET AS WE ARE STILL WELL DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH. THUS, STORM ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY SHOULD BE
LACKING. SPEAKING OF THE FRONT, THE SHORT-TERM MODELS FORECAST
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND SHOULD
LIE CLOSE TO THE KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH TIME AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES, THE
INITIAL MORE DISCRETE STORMS NEAR THE FRONT COULD BE FAIRLY
ORGANIZED AND WOULD POSE A HIGHER-END SEVERE THREAT, BUT THAT
THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSE TO THE KS BORDER.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED FROM NORTHERN TEXAS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA AND INTO MISSOURI WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES, A 30-40KT
LOW LEVEL JET AND INSTABILITY BECOMING MOSTLY ELEVATED WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHT/LOW END SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, THOUGH IN A WEAKENING STATE. GUSTY TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REPOSITIONS ITSELF
AND DEEPENS BACK WESTWARD OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BOUNDARY
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT RETREATS BACK NORTHWARD OVER KANSAS, KEEPING
BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LOW SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
REMAIN INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY AND ANY LINGERING POCKETS
OF VORTICITY MOVE AWAY FROM THE CWA. WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING
DRY WEDNESDAY AND ALSO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS/TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S,
LIMITED TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN. A
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AS MIN
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LOOKS TO BE IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES PAIRS UP WITH THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WEDNESDAY EVENING AND MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS,
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE
OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE CWA
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. STORM CHANCES COULD START AS
EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, IF SOME
CAM DATA VERIFIES, AHEAD OF THE MAIN BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
ARRIVING WEDNESDAY EVENING. INCREASING SURFACE/ELEVATED BASED
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AID IN SEVERE POTENTIALS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD EXIST WITH ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION, INCLUDING
LARGE HAIL AND A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT. THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
THIS IS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO MID EVENING.
SEVERE POTENTIALS MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD BEGIN
TO TRANSITION TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH SECONDARY THREATS OF
LARGE HAIL AND A LOW TORNADO POTENTIAL AS LOW LEVEL HELICITY
INCREASES ALONG THE LEADING LINE OF CONVECTION. OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIALS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS BECOME
A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE POTENTIALS, A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB UP NEAR THE 99TH PERCENT-TILE FOR
EARLY APRIL.
SHOWERS AND STORM POTENTIALS SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS DEPARTS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN COMMON BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WHICH ALLOWS FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THE
RE-ESTABILISHMENT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH A MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. STORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND BECOME LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE FRONT CAN EXIT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. SEVERE POTENTIALS AGAIN
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
CURRENTLY HAVING THE GREATER POTENTIAL OF ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING SEVERE POTENTIALS SHOULD WEAKEN, THOUGH A LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND THREAT COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS EXITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP
CHANCES PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, NORTHERLY
WINDS TRANSPORTING A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS SETS UP OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING AS STRATUS DEVELOPS WITHIN ONGOING MOISTURE RETURN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS NE OK BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND BECOME WIDESPREAD BY LATE EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A LINE OF CONVECTION SPREADS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 85 67 84 68 / 30 100 10 10
FSM 88 67 83 66 / 30 70 70 20
MLC 86 67 83 68 / 20 100 20 10
BVO 83 63 82 64 / 60 100 10 10
FYV 84 65 80 64 / 30 80 60 20
BYV 81 65 79 64 / 30 60 70 20
MKO 84 65 83 66 / 20 100 20 10
MIO 81 64 80 66 / 50 90 30 10
F10 84 64 83 66 / 20 100 10 10
HHW 83 65 81 65 / 20 80 50 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07
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