065
FXUS64 KTSA 011739
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1239 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS E OK. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
POSSIBLE.
- STRONG WINDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
- ADDITIONAL ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SFC TROUGH WERE DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH TEXAS
PANHANDLE WELL INTO MISSOURI. THIS FRONT WILL TEND TO LIFT BACK
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. AS THIS OCCURS, DEWPOINTS
INCREASE INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA,
EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE DRYLINE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
BEFORE THIS OCCURS, WARM SECTOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON, ASSOCIATED WITH
A SUBTLE WAVE WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME. SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY, THOUGH ANY STORM LINGERING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON COULD INTENSIFY AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR INCREASES.
STORMS THAT INITIATE NEAR THE FRONT WILL BE A GREATER CONCERN FOR
OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GENERALLY NORTH OF I-44
AND NEAR THE OK-KS BORDER. MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG, STEEP
LAPSE RATES, AND GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP/LOW LAYER SHEAR WILL
ALLOW STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING TO STRENGTHEN
AND BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS INITIALLY, BUT TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING. STORMS THAT INITIATED
OFF THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE MOVED EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WILL BE APPROACHING THE CWA BY LATE EVENING. BY THIS TIME, THESE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE MORE LINEAR IN NATURE, WITH A HIGHER
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND DECREASING HAIL POTENTIAL. TORNADOES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LINE AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY
BECOMES MAXIMIZED DURING THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY EXPECT HIGHEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO OCCUR BETWEEN 6 PM AND 3 AM TONIGHT AS
FRONTAL/DRYLINE STORMS MOVE EAST ACROSS E OK.
BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO NW AR WITH
AT LEAST A LOW SEVERE THREAT PERSISTING. HOWEVER, A WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY WANES WITH TIME AND EASTWARD
EXTENT. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS PWATS WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE RECENT DRY SPELL MAY HELP ALLEVIATE CONCERNS TO
SOME DEGREE... BUT FLASH FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH RAIN RATES UP TO 1-2 IN/HR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY AND MOVE EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT.
WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FOLLOWING STORMS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SFC LOW
PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW, GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN MOSTLY LESS THAN 40 MPH, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR E OK
AND NW AR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. SOME WAA SHOWERS/STORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE
PLACE FRIDAY MORNING AS A SFC LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION, WITH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
HIGHEST SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA,
DECREASING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE EXITING THE FA WITH
POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE FILLING IN BEHIND IT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
QUIETER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALBEIT MUCH COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RECOVER GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ATTEMPTS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DYNAMIC NEXT WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES BY MID-LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
EXPECT LOW-END VFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER FAR NE OK WILL MOSTLY GO UP INTO MO
AND MISS TAF SITES. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE
DRAPED CLOSE TO THE KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FIRE AFT 21Z AND COULD BE CLOSE TO KBVO, WARRANTING PROB30
MENTION. THEN, A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. USED TEMPOS CARRIED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO FOCUS ON FAVORED TIME WINDOWS AT VARIOUS SITES. USED
LOWER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND HIGHER WIND GUST POTENTIAL AT THE NE OK
SITES WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST. MODELS HAVE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AFTER STORMS MOVE OUT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING,
TRENDING TOWARD LOW-END VFR BY END OF PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE PERIOD, SOUTHERLY TODAY AND MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 65 85 68 80 / 100 10 10 50
FSM 66 83 66 83 / 70 70 60 60
MLC 66 83 68 80 / 90 30 30 50
BVO 62 83 63 80 / 100 10 10 60
FYV 64 80 63 80 / 70 70 50 60
BYV 64 78 65 80 / 60 60 50 60
MKO 64 83 65 80 / 90 30 20 50
MIO 63 81 65 78 / 90 30 30 50
F10 63 83 65 79 / 90 20 10 50
HHW 64 81 65 78 / 80 70 30 50
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30
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