634
FXUS64 KTSA 151755
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1255 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1255 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
- SEVERE STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING WEDNESDAY.
- WARM, HUMID, AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE, ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY, A MOISTURE PLUME WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES REMAINED COMMON
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EAST OF A SURFACE
BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM WEST TEXAS THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. WITHIN THIS PLUME, BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAD BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE INSTABILITY MAXIMIZED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND EASTWARD
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS
ONGOING OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITHIN A
SOUTHERN PORTION OF A 30-35KT LOW LEVEL JET HOLDING OVER THE CWA.
A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY, THOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WERE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THEY ARE BACK TO
THE WEST. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE PROBABLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OUT OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH INITIATING NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ALSO
OUT AHEAD OF IT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PROGGED TO INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD TOWARD THE CWA FROM A
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE COMBINATION
OF INCREASING SHEAR, STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA AND DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE MID/UPPER
60S WILL QUICKLY AID IN THE INCREASE OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES. AT
THE ONSET, WITH MORE DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER EXIST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SHEAR
VALUES MORE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY, STORM DEVELOPMENT BECOMING
BROKEN LINES AND CLUSTERS COULD TRANSITION SEVERE PROBS TO MORE OF
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ALSO, A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT EXISTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOOD CONCERNS
THROUGH TONIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME, A TORNADO THREAT REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
GREATER POTENTIAL LOOKING TO BECOME QLCS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE, TO 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES BECOMING MORE
ORIENTED TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST FORECAST THIS EVENING.
SEVERE POTENTIALS BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 06Z WITH MUCH OF THE
PRECIP EXITING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
WEST OF THE CWA TONIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S FOR LOWS THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, BEFORE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS
DEPARTS TO THE EAST, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS
FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ANY
LINGERING PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD TAP INTO
SHEAR/INSTABILITY HOLDING EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, AND CARRY
A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL. TO THE WEST OF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT,
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S, WHILE UPPER
70S/NEAR 80 DEG ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH
THE COLD FRONT BACK TOWARD THE CWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND THEN
THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE COMMON OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM DEVELOPMENT,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT.
AGAIN, SEVERE POTENTIALS EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
THE GREATER POTENTIAL OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS THE FRONT ENTERS
THIS AREA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAPER OFF AND EXIT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING FRONT AND WHILE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES
OVER THE REGION, NORTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION IS FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
ARE FORECAST SATURDAY, WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S AS CLOUD COVER TRIES TO CLEAR. TEMPERATURES
MORE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE ARE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A WAVE MOVING OVER TOP THE
RIDGE DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD RETURN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS FAR OUT AND
FOR NOW WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE BEING SLOW TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION, BUT SHOULD LIFT
ACROSS NE OK SITES SHORTLY, LASTING INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NW AR
SITES. THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NE OK DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NE OK THIS AFTERNOON WITH LESSER CHANCES ACROSS NW AR AND SE
OK SITES WHERE ONLY PROB30S ARE MENTIONED. ANOTHER WAVE OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO SE OK AND NW AR LATER THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS FOR NW
AR AND SE OK SITES. MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO LIKELY FILL BACK IN EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME LOW PROBABILITY FOR IFR CIGS AND FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NE OK AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 63 85 67 83 / 80 10 10 50
FSM 64 79 67 86 / 90 20 10 10
MLC 65 84 67 82 / 80 10 10 10
BVO 57 85 64 83 / 60 10 0 60
FYV 61 78 64 84 / 90 20 10 20
BYV 61 77 64 83 / 90 20 10 20
MKO 62 81 66 83 / 80 10 10 20
MIO 61 79 65 80 / 80 10 0 60
F10 62 84 67 83 / 80 10 10 20
HHW 64 83 65 82 / 80 20 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...04
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