537
FXUS64 KTSA 160339
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1039 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1035 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- WARM, HUMID, AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE, ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
THE SEVERE WEATHER THAT IMPACTED THE AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
WIND DOWN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THAT SAID, A FEW MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS UNTIL
DAYBREAK BEFORE IT TOTALLY WRAPS UP, RIDING ALONG A CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK,
LASTING INTO LATE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING. HIGHS WILL REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SEVERAL CAMS SHOW SOME ISOLATED STORMS
POPPING UP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING, THOUGH THEY DISAGREE
ON TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY. WITHOUT PROPER FORCING THIS IS
PROBABLY A LESS FAVORED OUTCOME, BUT WANTED AT LEAST A MENTION OF
STORMS AS IT IS POSSIBLE. IF A STORM DID GET GOING IT COULD
BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE. OTHERWISE, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
WARM, HUMID, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY AS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THE LARGE SCALE SET UP
IS THAT A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH WILL BE MOVING FROM THE WESTERN USA
TOWARDS THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A SEMI CUT OFF LOW BENEATH THE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING IN TANDEM TOWARDS THE AREA. THE SOUTHERLY CUT OFF LOW
WILL INDUCE A SUBTROPICAL JET ALONG WITH PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST
ADVECTION. IT WILL BEGIN TO MERGE MORE COMPLETELY WITH THE NORTHERLY
TROUGH, WITH A VERY POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET FORMING. THIS JET WILL BE
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT IN ADDITION TO THE UNUSUALLY ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS. MEANWHILE,
A COLD FRONT WILL BE BARRELING INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INVIGORATE WITH ITS OWN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE A HODOGRAPH THAT IS
BOTH STRONGLY CURVED IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THEN VERY ELONGATED IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL OCCUR WITH PWAT NEAR 1.5" AND MUCAPE
EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG.
IT IS SUFFICIENT TO SAY THAT THE INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
EARLY CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS TWO WINDOWS TO WATCH. A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE WOULD HAVE
THE HIGHER POTENTIAL TO BE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERE WITH ALL SEVERE
HAZARD TYPES. THEN, A MORE CONSOLIDATED LINE WILL FORM ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. THIS IS WHEN SEVERE WIND WOULD BE MORE LIKELY ALONG WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN. SPC AND AI MODEL GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY
MUCH AGREE ON THE ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HOPEFULLY AS
MORE CAMS COME INTO RANGE IN THE NEXT DAY SOME ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN BE PINNED DOWN.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IT LOOKS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER FOR LATER
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S AND 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS MAY BE NEXT
TUESDAY OR SO, BUT THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. HIGHS COULD
RETURN TO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH THE DENSEST COVERAGE SHIFTING FROM NORTHEAST
OK TOWARDS NORTHWEST AR AND SOUTHEAST OK AROUND 01-02Z. THE
IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, HAIL, GUSTY WINDS,
LOWERED VISIBILITY TO 1-2 SM, AND BRIEF CEILINGS OF 2-3 KFT.
STORMS WILL WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT. A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD
DEVELOP THURSDAY BUT WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND LOCATION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN SOUTHERLY, RETURNING
AGAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LOW CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP FOR ALL
AREAS THURSDAY MORNING, MOST LIKELY BREAKING UP IN THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 79 62 83 68 / MMM 80 20 20
FSM 79 63 83 66 / MMM 80 20 20
MLC 77 65 84 68 / MMM 80 10 10
BVO 81 57 83 65 / MMM 80 0 20
FYV 76 60 80 65 / MMM 90 20 20
BYV 77 60 80 65 / MMM 90 30 20
MKO 78 61 82 66 / MMM 80 20 20
MIO 77 60 80 66 / MMM 80 10 20
F10 79 62 84 67 / MMM 80 20 20
HHW 79 64 82 65 / MMM 90 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...06
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