448
FXUS64 KTSA 160520
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1220 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- WARM, HUMID, AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE, ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
THE SEVERE WEATHER THAT IMPACTED THE AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
WIND DOWN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THAT SAID, A FEW MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS UNTIL
DAYBREAK BEFORE IT TOTALLY WRAPS UP, RIDING ALONG A CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK,
LASTING INTO LATE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING. HIGHS WILL REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SEVERAL CAMS SHOW SOME ISOLATED STORMS
POPPING UP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING, THOUGH THEY DISAGREE
ON TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY. WITHOUT PROPER FORCING THIS IS
PROBABLY A LESS FAVORED OUTCOME, BUT WANTED AT LEAST A MENTION OF
STORMS AS IT IS POSSIBLE. IF A STORM DID GET GOING IT COULD
BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE. OTHERWISE, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
WARM, HUMID, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY AS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THE LARGE SCALE SET UP
IS THAT A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH WILL BE MOVING FROM THE WESTERN USA
TOWARDS THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A SEMI CUT OFF LOW BENEATH THE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING IN TANDEM TOWARDS THE AREA. THE SOUTHERLY CUT OFF LOW
WILL INDUCE A SUBTROPICAL JET ALONG WITH PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST
ADVECTION. IT WILL BEGIN TO MERGE MORE COMPLETELY WITH THE NORTHERLY
TROUGH, WITH A VERY POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET FORMING. THIS JET WILL BE
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT IN ADDITION TO THE UNUSUALLY ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS. MEANWHILE,
A COLD FRONT WILL BE BARRELING INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INVIGORATE WITH ITS OWN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE A HODOGRAPH THAT IS
BOTH STRONGLY CURVED IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THEN VERY ELONGATED IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL OCCUR WITH PWAT NEAR 1.5" AND MUCAPE
EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG.
IT IS SUFFICIENT TO SAY THAT THE INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
EARLY CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS TWO WINDOWS TO WATCH. A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE WOULD HAVE
THE HIGHER POTENTIAL TO BE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERE WITH ALL SEVERE
HAZARD TYPES. THEN, A MORE CONSOLIDATED LINE WILL FORM ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. THIS IS WHEN SEVERE WIND WOULD BE MORE LIKELY ALONG WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN. SPC AND AI MODEL GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY
MUCH AGREE ON THE ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HOPEFULLY AS
MORE CAMS COME INTO RANGE IN THE NEXT DAY SOME ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN BE PINNED DOWN.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IT LOOKS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER FOR LATER
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S AND 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS MAY BE NEXT
TUESDAY OR SO, BUT THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. HIGHS COULD
RETURN TO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
CURRENT BAND OF STORMS ACROSS NE OK IS WEAKENING, BUT THERE'S A
CHANCE THEY IMPACT FAR NW AR LATER, SO THUNDER MENTION WAS ADDED
AT KTUL/KRVS AND PROB30S WERE ADDED AT KXNA/KROG/KFYV. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT LOW CLOUD CIGS, PROBABLY LOW-END MVFR, TO OVERSPREAD NE OK
AND NW AR SITES BY 12Z. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AT KMLC. CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES AREN'T ZERO, BUT ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 83 68 81 49 / 20 20 30 90
FSM 83 66 86 55 / 20 20 20 80
MLC 84 68 82 51 / 10 10 10 80
BVO 83 65 82 45 / 0 20 50 90
FYV 80 65 83 48 / 20 20 20 80
BYV 80 65 82 48 / 30 20 20 80
MKO 82 66 82 48 / 20 20 20 80
MIO 80 66 81 45 / 10 20 40 90
F10 84 67 82 48 / 20 20 20 80
HHW 82 65 82 53 / 10 10 10 60
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30
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