838
FXUS64 KTSA 161758
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1258 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1258 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FAR E OK AND NW AR. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- WARM, HUMID, AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE, ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
MIDDAY THURSDAY A TRAILING MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...TO THE
PARENT TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WAS
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. OUT AHEAD OF
THE TRAILING TROF AXIS, BOTH A MODERATE SURFACE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINED COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AT THE SAME TIME, 35-50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE CWA WERE AHEAD OF THE
TROF AXIS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS INTERACTING WITH
THE MID LEVEL ASSENT PROVIDED BY THE DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING HOURS. THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
THIS IS ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE
THE HIGHER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, AN
ISOLATED STORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.
LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT, WHILE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE A SECONDARY THREAT.
A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT ALSO EXISTS INTO EARLY EVENING FOR FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS, THOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR
VALUES ARE MARGINAL.
STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND EXIT MID
EVENING ONCE THE BACKSIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN INCREASING AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINED
SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. WITHIN THIS
INCREASE FLOW, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN WHICH
SHOULD AID IN LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ALSO A COLD FRONT...AKA THE
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN HOLDING OUT TO THE WEST THIS WEEK. AGAIN,
WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND THE MOISTURE PLUME HOLDING OVER THE
REGION, STORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AN
ISOLATED STORM POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THE MORNING
HOURS WITH 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER, THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIALS
DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, AND THEN BECOME MORE LIKELY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CWA. LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
STORM INITIATION OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BE NORTH OF THE CWA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF ANY DEVELOPMENT CAN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CWA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A MORE DISCRETE STORM MODE IS FORECAST WITH
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE CWA LATE AFTERNOON AND ENTERS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY EVENING FRIDAY. THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA, AND SHOULD
BE EXITING EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME, ALONG/NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE THE GREATEST STORM CHANCES AND SEVERE
PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS OVER NORTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. SEVERE THREATS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS TRANSITION TO A MAINLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH
THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT, WHILE LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE A
SECONDARY THREAT. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, SEVERE POTENTIALS SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND TAPER OFF WITH THE
EXITING FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S FORECAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS EXITS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
CLEARING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS. IN RESPONSE, LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER TOPPING THE RIDGE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING LOW CHANCES OF
RAIN AND OR ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE CWA. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION, INCREASED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW,
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALL ARE PROGGED TO RETURN AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAVE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS,
STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN LOOK TO RETURN TO THE CWA LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH
FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST, ESPECIALLY IN NW AR. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, THOUGH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OCCURS IN NW AR. THE CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS FOR CONVECTION TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND HAVE MAINTAINED
PROB30 GROUPS AS A RESULT. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
LOW CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO REDEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS E OK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 68 84 47 63 / 10 50 90 10
FSM 66 85 55 68 / 20 20 80 30
MLC 68 84 51 65 / 10 20 90 20
BVO 65 84 43 63 / 0 70 90 10
FYV 66 84 48 64 / 20 30 90 20
BYV 65 83 48 61 / 20 30 80 20
MKO 66 83 48 63 / 10 30 90 10
MIO 66 81 45 60 / 10 60 90 10
F10 68 83 48 63 / 10 40 90 10
HHW 66 83 56 66 / 10 10 80 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...43
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