666
FXUS64 KTSA 170356
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1056 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
- WARM, HUMID, AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE, ARE
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
- COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WINDY, WARM, AND HUMID DAY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WITH AN ALL HAZARDS SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING AND WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND IN STORM INTENSITY EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS SATURDAY REMAINING IN THE 60S.
SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO
NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS
RETURN SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK AS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT XNA/ROG SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE FIRST
1-2 HOURS OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AT ALL SITES THEREAFTER. CLOUDS AT MVFR HEIGHTS REMAIN EXPECTED TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE TOMORROW MORNING, BUT CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE
TRENDING MORE TOWARD SCT CLOUDS AT THESE HEIGHTS, RATHER THAN BKN
OR OVC. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF AN MVFR CEILING APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE FAR NW AR TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
LONG LASTING CEILINGS IS NOT HIGH. WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP AT
THESE 3 SITES FOR THAT POTENTIAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY, WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 30 KTS AT
ALL SITES. THE NE OK TERMINALS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LAST 3 TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD, WITH A
PROB30 MENTION FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 69 82 46 63 / 10 30 90 0
FSM 67 85 53 66 / 20 10 80 30
MLC 68 82 51 64 / 10 10 90 20
BVO 65 82 44 62 / 10 40 90 0
FYV 64 82 47 61 / 10 10 90 30
BYV 65 82 47 60 / 10 10 90 30
MKO 67 83 47 63 / 10 20 90 20
MIO 67 81 45 60 / 10 30 90 10
F10 67 82 47 63 / 10 20 90 10
HHW 66 82 52 65 / 10 0 70 40
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22
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