492
FXUS64 KTSA 170523
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1223 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
- WARM, HUMID, AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE, ARE
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
- COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WINDY, WARM, AND HUMID DAY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WITH AN ALL HAZARDS SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING AND WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND IN STORM INTENSITY EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS SATURDAY REMAINING IN THE 60S.
SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO
NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS
RETURN SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK AS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
WINDOW WILL EXIST FOR A FEW HOURS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FOR MVFR
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP WITH NW AR LIKELY BEING FAVORED. SOUTH WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS
COMMON. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES POSSIBLE ACROSS NE OK AFTER
ABOUT 21Z WILL BE HANDLED WITH PROB30 AS COVERAGE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. HIGHER CONFIDENCE SCENARIO REMAINS FOR A LINE OF
INTENSE CONVECTION MOVING INTO NE OK 02-04Z THEN PUSHING INTO NW
AR/SE OK BEFORE 06Z WHILE DECREASING IN INTENSITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 46 63 41 73 / 90 0 0 0
FSM 53 66 40 74 / 80 30 0 0
MLC 51 64 38 73 / 90 20 0 0
BVO 44 62 34 73 / 90 0 0 0
FYV 47 61 35 70 / 90 30 0 0
BYV 47 60 38 70 / 90 30 0 0
MKO 47 63 38 72 / 90 20 0 0
MIO 45 60 36 70 / 90 10 0 0
F10 47 63 38 73 / 90 10 0 0
HHW 52 65 41 71 / 70 40 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14
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