301
FXUS64 KTSA 171131
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 624 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
- WARM, HUMID, AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE, ARE
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
- COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WINDY, WARM, AND HUMID DAY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WITH AN ALL HAZARDS SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING AND WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND IN STORM INTENSITY EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS SATURDAY REMAINING IN THE 60S.
SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO
NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS
RETURN SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK AS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY, WITH EXPANDING
LOWER CLOUD DECK THIS MORNING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CEILINGS A
LITTLE ABOVE VFR THRESHOLD. PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS STILL POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY BEING ACROSS NW AR. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS COMMON
THROUGH AFTERNOON. DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR INITIAL DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE
OK AFTER ABOUT 21Z, TO BE HANDLED WITH PROB30 AS COVERAGE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. HIGHER CONFIDENCE SCENARIO REMAINS FOR A LINE OF
INTENSE CONVECTION MOVING INTO NE OK 02-04Z THEN PUSHING INTO NW
AR/SE OK BEFORE 06Z WHILE DECREASING IN INTENSITY. PERIOD OF LOWER
MVFR CEILINGS AND AT LEAST BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSAGE OF
STORMS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS >40 KNOTS WITH STORMS
AT NE OK SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 82 46 63 41 / 30 90 0 0
FSM 85 53 66 40 / 10 80 30 0
MLC 82 51 64 38 / 10 90 20 0
BVO 82 44 62 34 / 40 90 0 0
FYV 82 47 61 35 / 10 90 30 0
BYV 82 47 60 38 / 10 90 30 0
MKO 83 47 63 38 / 20 90 20 0
MIO 81 45 60 36 / 30 90 10 0
F10 82 47 63 38 / 20 90 10 0
HHW 82 52 65 41 / 0 70 40 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14
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