287
FXUS64 KTSA 172339
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
639 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- A BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL.
- GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
- COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY MORNING
FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
THE LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR VERY GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THIS
IS LIKELY DUE TO LOCALIZED TIGHTENING OR COMPRESSION OF THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A PRE-FRONTAL LOW AND NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. SPOTTY WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER, SO THE GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. GIVEN
BORDERLINE, SPOTTY AND SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THE THREAT, A WIND
HEADLINE WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL KS DOWN
INTO NW OK, AND A DRYLINE SOUTH FROM THERE ROUGHLY ALONG THE OK/TX
PANHANDLE BORDER. SOME AGITATED CU IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE NEAR
THE TRIPLE POINT. THE HRRR HAS HANDLED THE FRONTAL SPEED WELL SO
FAR, AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE PORTION OF THE FRONT
DROPPING DOWN INTO NW OK IS SLOWING ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
SOME, AS IT INDICATES. THIS IS IMPORTANT, AS ANY SLOWING OF THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE
THREAT INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP EITHER
NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OR SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE. THE ENVIRONMENT
SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED (WESTERLY
0-6KM SHEAR 50+ KNOTS). LOW LEVEL (0-1KM) SHEAR WILL IMPROVE BY
THE TIME STORMS ENTER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AROUND 00Z
AND ONWARD. THUS, STORMS THAT MOVE INTO NE OK FROM THE WEST JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGHER-END
SEVERE WEATHER (BIG HAIL, LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES
[EITHER SUPERCELLULAR OR EVOLVING INTO QLCS VARIETY]). THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL BE THE EXPECTED
ACCELERATION OF THE FRONT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. ONCE THIS OCCURS,
STORMS WILL TEND BE UNDERCUT GIVEN MORE ANA-FRONTAL MOVEMENT OF
THE CELLS. THUS, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BOTH TEMPORALLY
AND SPATIALLY BECAUSE OF THE FRONT. AREAS NORTH OF I-44 STAND THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT FROM THIS EVENT, MAINLY IN THE 6 TO 11 PM
TIMEFRAME. SOME LINGERING SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON FRONTAL LOCATION.
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WANES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT AND BAND OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST. IN FACT, THUNDER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DROP
OFF BY 09Z EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN OK BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT NO ADVISORY IS EXPECTED GIVEN MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA,
ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE KS BORDER. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
LACY
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY TO START THE WEEKEND BEHIND
THE FRONT. DUE TO THE MODEL BLEND (NBM) TENDENCY TO HOLD ONTO
POPS TOO LONG, WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST SOONER, I.E. EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, BACK INTO THE 60S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 30S BY SUNDAY MORNING
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS
WE GET CLOSER.
A WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BRING STORM CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, HOWEVER.
THE DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT STORM AND SEVERE CHANCES TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
LACY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN
REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH AND REMAIN GUSTY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY, WITH CLEARING
SKIES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 47 64 40 74 / 100 0 0 0
FSM 54 67 40 74 / 90 20 0 0
MLC 52 65 37 73 / 90 10 0 0
BVO 45 64 35 74 / 100 0 0 0
FYV 48 63 33 71 / 100 10 0 0
BYV 48 61 38 70 / 100 20 0 0
MKO 49 63 38 72 / 100 10 0 0
MIO 45 61 37 71 / 100 0 0 0
F10 49 64 37 73 / 90 10 0 0
HHW 53 65 41 71 / 70 30 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05
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