691
FXUS64 KTSA 180451
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST ALONG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE EXITING SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.
FROST DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE A
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM PROVIDES INCREASING RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF E OK AND NW AR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL WANE
WITH TIME. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS
IMPACTED BY PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN NE OK AND NW AR.
STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTH WINDS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE STORMS
TONIGHT, AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH. SOME GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND BRIEF. STORMS EXIT THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENTLY
OBSERVED WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
60S. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY THE EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL PROVIDE A COOL NIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE TYPICALLY
COLDER SPOTS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN
NW AR. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A QUIET NIGHT WEATHER-WISE. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WHICH COULD BRING SOME
LOW SHOWER/ THUNDER CHANCES TO THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING MOVES THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID-WEEK AND THEN EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION, WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO NEAR/ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN
REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH AND REMAIN GUSTY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY, WITH CLEARING
SKIES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 47 64 41 74 / 100 0 0 0
FSM 53 66 40 74 / 100 20 0 0
MLC 50 64 38 74 / 100 10 0 0
BVO 43 64 36 74 / 100 0 0 0
FYV 47 62 35 71 / 100 20 0 0
BYV 48 60 38 69 / 100 20 0 0
MKO 47 63 38 72 / 100 10 0 0
MIO 45 61 38 70 / 100 0 0 0
F10 47 63 38 72 / 100 10 0 0
HHW 52 64 41 72 / 90 30 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05
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