804
FXUS64 KTSA 052330
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 628 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- WARMER TREND LATE WEEK WITH A RETURN OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SHARP CONTRAST NOTED ACROSS THE COLD FRONT MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
THROUGH NE OK AND FAR NW AR. AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM SE OK
INTO NW AR AHEAD. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND LIKELY INITIALLY FORCED IN THE CORRIDOR EAST OF
THE SFC LOW LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL OK BY MID AFTERNOON. STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE FAST WHICH WILL LIMIT RESIDENCE TIME ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH ANY
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. A HIGHER COVERAGE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT BUT THIS IS MORE LIKELY FURTHER EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH POCKETS OF DRIZZLE LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH
THE EVENING IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
DEEP TROUGHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW A SEASONABLY
COOL AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BRUSH FAR SE OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR
WEDNESDAY BUT ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40.
WARMING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE RETURN UNDERWAY. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL
ALSO BE THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
THE FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KMLC AND
KFSM LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 49 63 43 69 / 20 0 0 0
FSM 54 67 48 72 / 20 20 10 0
MLC 51 67 46 70 / 20 10 0 0
BVO 45 61 39 69 / 20 0 0 0
FYV 48 63 42 68 / 30 20 0 0
BYV 47 59 43 67 / 40 20 0 0
MKO 50 64 44 68 / 10 10 0 0
MIO 46 60 41 66 / 20 10 0 0
F10 49 64 44 71 / 10 10 0 0
HHW 57 70 51 71 / 20 20 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...05
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