982
FXUS64 KTSA 060435
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1135 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40..
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMER TREND FRIDAY WITH A RETURN OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY HAD PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MID EVENING TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT THE 925-MB AND 850-MB LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER THE CWA INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN RESPONSE,
AND COMBINED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS KANSAS, WILL CONTINUE
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE CWA, WITH THUNDER POTENTIALS MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST
SHORT- TERM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE 925-MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE TRENDED HIGHER POPS IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES OVER THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT WEDNESDAY
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH THUNDER POTENTIALS SHIFT SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD TAPER OFF/EXIT WITH THE DEPARTED ELEVATED
FRONTS. MAJORITY OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA WEDNESDAY, THUS SEVERE POTENTIALS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SAGGING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS GOING
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S/50S ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN ONLY WARM INTO THE 60S DURING
THE DAY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD CREATE THE
SCATTERING OF CLOUD COVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE NORMAL COOL LOCATIONS COULD POTENTIALLY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN
OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S
FRIDAY. ON THE HEALS OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE, A SECOND SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS, WHICH COULD CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS AS THE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. FOR NOW, WITH UNCERTAINTY OF MOISTURE RETURN, WILL CARRY
LOW POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE FRIDAY DISTURBANCE EXITS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION SHOULD HAVE
MORE TIME AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, AND COULD HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST LATE WEEKEND
AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARMER CONDITIONS QUICKLY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
THE FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KMLC AND
KFSM LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 47 64 43 71 / 20 10 0 0
FSM 53 66 48 72 / 30 20 10 0
MLC 50 66 46 72 / 20 20 0 0
BVO 44 62 37 70 / 20 10 0 0
FYV 46 62 42 68 / 30 20 0 10
BYV 45 60 43 67 / 40 20 0 0
MKO 48 64 44 70 / 20 20 0 0
MIO 45 61 40 67 / 30 10 0 0
F10 48 64 43 70 / 20 10 0 0
HHW 55 68 52 72 / 30 20 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...05
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