313
FXUS64 KTSA 062328
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
628 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1243 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
- WARMER TEMPS FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING.
- UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
ONGOING LIGHT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44 WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY THIS EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS OF NE OK
AND FAR NW AR.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
PLEASANT DAY THURSDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES.
WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY WITH A NOTABLE WARM UP ALONG WITH INITIAL
MOISTURE RETURN FETCH FOCUSED THROUGH NE OK AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
COLD FRONT. THE MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE RETURN IS SOMEWHAT
QUESTIONABLE BUT MOST GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP A CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH MINIMAL CAPPING. TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S AND FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP
IN OR NEAR NE OK BY MID AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST AND
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION AND EXPECTED T/TD SPREADS SUPPORT IDEA OF
STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL WITH PERSISTENT STORMS. EXPECT A RATHER
QUICK STABILIZATION AFTER SUNSET SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH WITH SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING.
THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS
MORE UNCERTAIN WHICH IMPACTS THE DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR RETURN INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF STRONGER WAVE TIMED FOR SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS DETERMINED BY THE WARM SECTOR
DETAILS. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE PATTERN SUPPORTIVE
OF ADDITIONAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT,
BECOMING WESTERLY TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE MORNING
TOMORROW. SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 41 72 52 82 / 0 0 0 30
FSM 47 73 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 44 73 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 36 71 49 82 / 0 0 0 50
FYV 38 70 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 41 68 48 77 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 42 69 49 79 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 38 67 50 77 / 0 0 0 50
F10 42 71 50 80 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 50 72 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04
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