535
FXUS64 KTSA 070429
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1129 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1111 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
- WARMER TEMPS FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING.
- UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
OVERALL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS PROMOTING CHILLY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO UPPER 30S AND 40S. SOME MID 30S POSSIBLE IN COLDER SPOTS
ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS LEAD
TO A NICE AFTERNOON THURSDAY, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A LIGHT SOUTH COMPONENT TO WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS MILDER, WITH WINDS INCREASING FURTHER FROM THE
SOUTH ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AS WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT SUBSTANTIAL, HOWEVER IT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITH THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH STRONG ENOUGH WIND FIELDS TO
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION. IN ANY CASE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT LIKELY AND STORM SHOULD WANE LATER IN THE EVENING.
ACTIVE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST
WITH A STRONGER WAVE AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY. AGAIN
MOISTURE QUALITY COULD BE BETTER, BUT STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS
TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING INTO AT LEAST PART
OF SUNDAY. BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ANOTHER POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW BRINGING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BACK BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT,
BECOMING WESTERLY TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE MORNING
TOMORROW. SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 41 73 53 82 / 0 0 0 40
FSM 47 73 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 44 73 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 36 72 50 82 / 0 0 0 50
FYV 38 70 48 79 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 41 68 49 77 / 10 0 0 20
MKO 42 70 49 79 / 0 0 0 20
MIO 38 68 50 77 / 0 0 0 50
F10 42 72 50 80 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 50 72 50 78 / 0 0 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04
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