110
FXUS64 KTSA 071100
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 600 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
- WARMER TEMPS FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING.
- UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
OVERALL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS PROMOTING CHILLY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO UPPER 30S AND 40S. SOME MID 30S POSSIBLE IN COLDER SPOTS
ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS LEAD
TO A NICE AFTERNOON THURSDAY, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A LIGHT SOUTH COMPONENT TO WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS MILDER, WITH WINDS INCREASING FURTHER FROM THE
SOUTH ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AS WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT SUBSTANTIAL, HOWEVER IT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITH THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH STRONG ENOUGH WIND FIELDS TO
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION. IN ANY CASE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT LIKELY AND STORM SHOULD WANE LATER IN THE EVENING.
ACTIVE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST
WITH A STRONGER WAVE AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY. AGAIN
MOISTURE QUALITY COULD BE BETTER, BUT STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS
TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING INTO AT LEAST PART
OF SUNDAY. BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ANOTHER POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW BRINGING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BACK BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD PREDOMINANTLY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME VALLEY FOG AT KFYV AND HAVE ADDED AN
MVFR FOG TEMPO THERE. WHILE WINDS SWITCH FROM CALM TO WEST DURING
THE DAY TODAY TO SOUTH TONIGHT, SPEEDS SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTFUL.
LLWS CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE IN THE THE FORECAST AT KBVO.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 73 53 82 55 / 0 0 40 30
FSM 73 48 82 57 / 0 0 0 30
MLC 73 50 81 58 / 0 0 0 30
BVO 72 50 82 49 / 0 0 50 20
FYV 70 48 79 54 / 0 0 10 50
BYV 68 49 77 53 / 0 0 20 50
MKO 70 49 79 56 / 0 0 20 40
MIO 68 50 77 52 / 0 0 50 40
F10 72 50 80 56 / 0 0 10 40
HHW 72 50 78 58 / 0 0 10 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30
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