904
FXUS64 KTSA 072328
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
628 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 110 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
- WARMER TEMPS FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
QUIET AND DRY OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURN HELPING KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FRIDAY AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH NE OK EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ONGOING BUT LIMITED IN
MAGNITUDE AS SFC RIDGING CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE WESTERN
GULF. DESPITE THE LESSER MOISTURE RETURN, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT DEVELOPING AN UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STRONG MULTICELL TO SUPERCELL STORM MODE WITH
THE MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. EXPECT A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER
SUNSET.
THE COMBINED OUTFLOW / COLD FRONT BOUNDARY LIKELY BECOMES ALIGNED
FROM THE RED RIVER CORRIDOR OF SE OK INTO NW OK BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY ON BOTH THE PLACEMENT AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE EVENTUAL INSTABILITY CORRIDOR IN PLACE BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THE SCENARIO OF STORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE
LOCAL REGION AND SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS THE
GENERAL IDEA, HOWEVER THE OVERALL STORM COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE
INTO THE DAY SUNDAY IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
THE WAVE PASSING SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A DRY START TO THE
WORK WEEK. THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES IN THE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
TIME FRAME ACCOMPANIED BY THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING ACROSS NE OK SITES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS GO RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NE OK DURING THE AFTERNOON,
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
GUSTS LIKELY LESSENING SOMEWHAT AS WELL AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 53 82 55 82 / 0 40 40 0
FSM 48 82 57 84 / 0 0 30 0
MLC 49 81 58 84 / 0 0 40 0
BVO 49 82 49 83 / 0 50 30 0
FYV 47 79 54 82 / 0 10 50 0
BYV 48 77 55 81 / 0 10 50 0
MKO 49 79 56 81 / 0 10 50 0
MIO 50 77 52 80 / 0 50 50 0
F10 50 80 56 82 / 0 10 50 0
HHW 50 77 58 82 / 0 0 30 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04
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