255
FXUS64 KTSA 080431
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1131 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1111 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
- WARMER TEMPS FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
QUIET NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A BIT MILDER AND A LIGHT
SOUTH WIND. AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WIND FRIDAY WILL BRING NOTABLY
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, AND WILL RESULT IN SOME DEGREE OF
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF UNSTABLE AIR ALONG AND TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW TIMED FAVORABLY WITH PEAK
HEATING WILL HELP ERODE INHIBITION, WITH THE RESULT BEING
DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED BY LAST SEVERAL CAM RUNS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH TEMP/DEW POINT
SPREADS SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR MAY ALSO PROMOTE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION FOR LARGE HAIL.
STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WEAKENING
TREND LIKELY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST
LATE SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE TO WHERE THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL LIE,
BUT THE SIGNAL REMAINS OF STORMS GROWING INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS
AND SPREADING ESE SATURDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO PART OF
SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION BY PASSING
UPPER WAVE.
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE DRY WITH A COOLER DAY SUNDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MID-
WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING ACROSS NE OK SITES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS GO RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NE OK DURING THE AFTERNOON,
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
GUSTS LIKELY LESSENING SOMEWHAT AS WELL AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 53 82 54 82 / 0 40 40 0
FSM 48 82 57 85 / 0 0 40 0
MLC 49 81 58 84 / 0 0 30 0
BVO 49 82 48 82 / 0 50 10 0
FYV 47 78 53 83 / 0 0 50 0
BYV 48 77 54 81 / 0 0 70 0
MKO 49 79 55 81 / 0 10 50 0
MIO 50 77 52 80 / 0 40 60 0
F10 50 80 56 82 / 0 10 40 0
HHW 50 78 59 82 / 0 0 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04
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