440
FXUS64 KTSA 081133
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 631 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
- WARMER TEMPS FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
QUIET NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A BIT MILDER AND A LIGHT
SOUTH WIND. AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WIND FRIDAY WILL BRING NOTABLY
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, AND WILL RESULT IN SOME DEGREE OF
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF UNSTABLE AIR ALONG AND TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW TIMED FAVORABLY WITH PEAK
HEATING WILL HELP ERODE INHIBITION, WITH THE RESULT BEING
DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED BY LAST SEVERAL CAM RUNS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH TEMP/DEW POINT
SPREADS SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR MAY ALSO PROMOTE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION FOR LARGE HAIL.
STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WEAKENING
TREND LIKELY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST
LATE SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE TO WHERE THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL LIE,
BUT THE SIGNAL REMAINS OF STORMS GROWING INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS
AND SPREADING ESE SATURDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO PART OF
SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION BY PASSING
UPPER WAVE.
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE DRY WITH A COOLER DAY SUNDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MID-
WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE DAY
TODAY. A BROKEN BAND OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT MOST SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF'S AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 82 54 82 60 / 40 40 0 60
FSM 82 57 85 60 / 0 40 0 40
MLC 81 58 84 63 / 0 30 0 60
BVO 82 48 82 56 / 50 10 0 50
FYV 78 53 83 58 / 0 50 0 40
BYV 77 54 81 57 / 0 70 0 30
MKO 79 55 81 59 / 10 50 0 60
MIO 77 52 80 57 / 40 60 0 40
F10 80 56 82 61 / 10 40 0 60
HHW 78 59 82 63 / 0 20 0 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05
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