348
FXUS64 KTSA 090445
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
- AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 412.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE MID MAY NORMALS FORECAST NEXT WEEK W/ LOW
RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
CLEARING SKIES NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, COMBINED WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG COULD
BE LOCALLY DENSE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL FROM THE EVENING STORMS. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BEFORE
STALLING/WASHING OUT OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
A GENERALLY PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE ON SATURDAY, WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA
BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS
TO MAINLY BE FOCUSED WEST OF THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH A LOWER THREAT WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER, A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY,
CLEARING WESTERN ARKANSAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK
TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A STRONGER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING,
LIKELY ENHANCING FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. AGAIN,
SOME STRONG TO MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE MORE
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS. UPPER
RIDGING SHIFTS MORE OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING
TO RETREAT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. MORE ZONAL FLOW
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN STORM CHANCES POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
TRENDS SHOW THE PATTERN POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED, MORE
TYPICAL OF MID TO LATE MAY, HEADING INTO THE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS DURING THE FIRST 3 TO 6 HOURS
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD EXIST FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT BVO.
HIGHEST POTENTIAL IS TUL/RVS, WHERE TEMPOS WILL CONTINUE. PROB30S
INCLUDED AT MLC AND THE W AR SITES, WHERE IMPACTS ARE LESS CERTAIN
GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF A DECLINE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WITH TIME. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH VISIBILITIES
LOCALLY TO A MILE, LOW CHANCE OF LESS THAN THAT, EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 55 83 61 71 / 40 0 70 70
FSM 58 86 61 77 / 40 0 60 80
MLC 58 86 64 75 / 60 0 60 90
BVO 49 83 56 71 / 20 0 60 50
FYV 53 84 59 74 / 60 0 40 80
BYV 54 82 58 71 / 60 0 30 80
MKO 55 82 60 72 / 70 0 70 70
MIO 52 81 57 69 / 50 0 30 50
F10 55 83 61 72 / 70 0 80 80
HHW 59 83 64 77 / 30 0 30 90
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...22
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page