912
FXUS64 KTSA 092341
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
641 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 640 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIALS AND A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
- TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE MID MAY NORMALS FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WEAK LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME,
NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW OVER RUNNING AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY OUT
WEST WILL HELP DEVELOP SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE CWA. DIURNAL
MID CLOUDS WILL ALSO REMAIN COMMON OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WHERE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME
RESIDED. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEEPEN AND SPREAD EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. IN RESPONSE, THE MID TO LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
IS PROGGED TO SET UP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PANHANDLES AND MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET. MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST/SOUTHEAST OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE THAT TRIES TO MOVE IT INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA,
WHERE A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
EXISTS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THE GREATER STORM POTENTIAL IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE
AROUND/AFTER 06Z SUNDAY, AND DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A LAYER OF
DRIER AIR BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THE LCL COULD PROVIDE AN
INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH A
DEVELOPING COLD POOL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
TULSA TO FORT SMITH. A SECONDARY THREAT WOULD BE FOR LARGE HAIL.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, ONGOING CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS IS FORECAST TO EXIT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH MORE LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL ALSO DEVELOPS
NORTHWARD FROM A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY. BY MID AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE 850-700MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. SEVERE POTENTIALS SUNDAY LOOK TO BE
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER MORNING TO EARLY CONVECTION
ALONG AND SOUTH INTERSTATE 40 WITH A CONTINUED LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO DEVELOPS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A MORE SATURATED COLUMN OF AIR DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN RAIN
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF AND EXITING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE, COOLER
CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FILTERING THROUGH THE REGION. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY TRIES
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT FROM ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SMALL
CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE
BOUNDARY, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH JUST HOW FAR SOUTH INTO
THE CWA THIS BOUNDARY CAN TRAVEL. THUS, WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.
LOOKING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF BREEZY TO GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE FOR MID MAY. LOW PRECIP CHANCES COULD AGAIN DEVELOP AT THE
FAR END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS EVENING FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE
EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS
LOWER THAN AVERAGE, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COMPLEX OF
STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. KMLC CURRENTLY HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO
EXPERIENCE IMPACTS AFTER MIDNIGHT, THOUGH MUCH OF E OK AND
W-CENTRAL AR HAS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS, HAIL, HEAVY RAIN, AND
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VSBYS. BY LATE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS E OK AND
INTO NW AR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. THERE IS INCREASING SIGNAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS
SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, THOUGH GUIDANCE
VARIES. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 60 71 50 76 / 60 70 10 0
FSM 62 75 56 79 / 30 70 20 0
MLC 64 72 55 77 / 60 90 20 0
BVO 57 70 44 76 / 50 50 0 0
FYV 60 73 51 76 / 10 60 10 0
BYV 58 71 49 74 / 10 50 10 0
MKO 60 70 52 76 / 60 70 10 0
MIO 58 70 46 75 / 10 50 0 0
F10 61 71 51 75 / 80 90 10 0
HHW 65 76 59 77 / 30 90 50 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...43
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