735
FXUS64 KTSA 110422
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1122 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
- DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING, WITH COOL
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
- TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE MID MAY NORMALS FORECAST FOR THE WEEK
AHEAD WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
A COOL AND LARGELY LOW IMPACT OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF YOUR MONDAY, BEHIND TODAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ALSO
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THAT SHOULD
CLEAR OUT JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE LOW IMPACT WEATHER WILL
EXTEND INTO MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS, DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND SEASONABLE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAKE A RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SOUTHERLY WINDS, AIDED BY THE LOCATION OF THE PRE-
FRONTAL WARM NOSE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
SEVERE WEATHER UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP OFF MUCH
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BRIEFLY IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME,
BRINGING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, LARGELY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS FORECAST, WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF EACH POTENTIAL
DISTURBANCE AT THIS RANGE. LATE IN THE WEEKEND, A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS DEPICTED IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS, LIKELY
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
COULD SERVE AS A LIMIT ON JUST HOW HIGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GET
ON ANY GIVEN DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
MVFR CIGS MLC EXPECTED TO IMPROVE NEXT FEW HOURS, BECOMING VFR
03-06Z. OTHERWISE, ALL SITES VFR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MID CLOUD
CIGS, BECOMING HIGH CLOUD CIGS TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NWRN AR WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST NEXT COUPLE HOURS, WITH NO IMPACT TO TERMINALS
EXPECTED. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW PROBABILITY FOR FOG NWRN AR
SITES LATE TONIGHT, BUT GIVEN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED, IMPACTFUL FOG
POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND
BEHIND FRONT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, BECOMES EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 50 79 55 84 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 57 80 53 84 / 30 0 0 0
MLC 56 80 55 82 / 40 0 0 0
BVO 43 78 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 51 79 53 81 / 20 0 0 0
BYV 50 76 53 81 / 20 0 0 0
MKO 53 78 53 81 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 47 77 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
F10 52 77 54 81 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 60 78 54 80 / 50 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...69
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