815
FXUS64 KTSA 112250
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
550 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 544 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
- LOW STORM CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS THIS WEEKEND.
- TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE MID MAY NORMALS FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY )
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY WILL REMAIN COMMON INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. IN RESPONSE, MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TUESDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST. AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION, SOUTHERLY WINDS
QUICKLY RETURN ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING 10 TO 25 MPH WILL
AID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
PUSH A TRAILING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD AND INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT LOW SHOWER/STORM CHANCES MAINLY
OVER FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS GENERALLY
03-09Z. LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIALS ARE MAINLY THROUGH LATE EVENING
BEFORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEAKENS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
MODERATELY STRONG LAPSE RATES COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BRIEF WINDOW FOR HAIL OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER, ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIALS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
ANTICIPATED.
THE BOUNDARY TRIES TO SAG THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEAST THURSDAY WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A QUICK RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, WITH THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION, COULD POTENTIALLY CREATE A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. FOR NOW THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE CRITERIA THURSDAY.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD FOR FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON TIMING, STRENGTH, AND LOCATION OF THESE DISTURBANCES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE CWA WEST OF THE RIDGE, GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY MENTIONED, WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LATEST TRENDS AS THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MID MAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO POTENTIALLY LOW 90S ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES THESE TEMPERATURES COULD BE A
LITTLE TOO WARM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST RUNS OF THE NBM HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER, WHILE SOME OTHER GUIDANCE REMAINS
WARMER. AGAIN, THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UPDATED
THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY TO SWRLY BY MID-MORNING TUESDAY,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AT THE NE OK SITES DURING THE DAY.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 55 83 63 84 / 0 0 10 0
FSM 53 84 59 86 / 0 0 10 0
MLC 55 83 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 50 84 59 83 / 0 0 10 0
FYV 50 81 59 84 / 0 0 20 0
BYV 52 81 58 80 / 0 0 20 0
MKO 53 82 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 51 80 59 79 / 0 0 20 0
F10 53 82 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 54 81 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page