579
FXUS64 KTSA 121125
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
625 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 624 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- LOW STORM CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI
BORDERS.
- LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH
A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD.
- TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE MID MAY NORMALS FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
LOW IMPACT WEATHER REMAINS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS,
COOL TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTH SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD, LEADING TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE SEEN ON
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS MAINLY PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE
CONTINUED TO ADJUST DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
USING THE SHORT-TERM BLENDED GUIDANCE TO SLOW THE INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS GIVEN
THE RELATIVE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH TO THOSE AREAS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS HOW MUCH, IF ANY,
CONVECTION SPREADS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE COOL FRONT APPROACHING AND
FINALLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR DECREASING
COVERAGE THIS FAR SOUTH, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS DRIFTING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE NBM INITIALIZATION HAS NON-MENTIONABLE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS FORECAST WILL FEATURE ONLY A MODEST INCREASE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS. THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW BUT NONZERO. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE DELAYED PASSAGE
LEADING TO WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THERE WHILE AREAS FARTHER
NORTH SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD
TOWARD THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS EXISTS
THURSDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE NBM INITIALIZATION HINTS AT THIS, ALTHOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO REFLECT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE
INITIALIZATION VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN
HOW MUCH OF THE MODEL SUITE DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM, WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING A
BLEND OF THE NBM AND THE TRADITIONAL MOS GUIDANCE. A SIMILAR BLEND
HAS BEEN USED FOR FRIDAY/S HIGHS. THE STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EXTENT OF
THE HEAT LIKELY TO HINGE ON HOW MUCH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS DURING THE TIME FRAME.
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW-MOVING FRONT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AS WELL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS TODAY AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 82 61 82 59 / 0 10 0 20
FSM 83 57 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 82 59 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 83 55 80 52 / 0 10 0 20
FYV 80 55 80 52 / 0 10 0 0
BYV 80 59 78 52 / 0 20 0 0
MKO 80 59 82 58 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 79 57 78 55 / 0 20 0 10
F10 81 59 83 59 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 80 56 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05
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