935
FXUS64 KTSA 252339
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
639 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1048 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY IN SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR.
- DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS, RESULTING IN
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BUT OTHERWISE IS HAVING ONLY MINOR IMPACTS
ON THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT DAYTIME
HEATING, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED POP UP SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEGINNING
TUESDAY, AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS TEXAS LIFTING NORTHWEST AND BEING
ABSORBED BY A DEEPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. AS THIS
OCCURS, A NEAR SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST
(JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA) WITH PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE IN THE
850-700 HPA LAYER. MODEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT,
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT A FACTOR. CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS ALONG WITH HEALTHY MOISTURE LEVELS (PWAT OF 95TH
PERCENTILE OR HIGHER), REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO LATE WEEK. HEAVY RAIN AT
TIMES IS EXPECTED. GIVEN RECENT WET CONDITIONS, AND THE POTENTIAL
OF SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN, LOCALIZED FLOOD CONCERNS MAY
DEVELOP. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS STRETCH.
HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S. THURSDAY MAY END UP AS THE CLOUDIEST AND WETTEST DAYS,
SO ITS POSSIBLE HIGHS WILL NEED TO BE NUDGED DOWN FROM THE CURRENT
LEVELS WITH TIME.
THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT OVER THE WEEKEND. A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL PREVENT ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS
FROM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, WITH WEAK TROUGHING REMAINING
OVERHEAD, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND WITH AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSISTING UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS WILL BE: THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND ANY HEAVY SHOWER AND/OR STORM THAT DRIFTS OVER THE
AERODROMES. LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MAY
LIMIT THE DURATION AND COVERAGE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS AT KFYV JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS OF THE AREA AROUND MID-LATE MORNING TUESDAY,
WITH LOW TO MEDIUM TSRA CHANCES PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE LOW CHANCE
OF A STORM ROLLS OVER ANY TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW EVENING.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 64 82 64 82 / 0 30 20 70
FSM 65 83 65 85 / 10 50 20 80
MLC 64 84 65 82 / 10 30 30 90
BVO 60 83 61 83 / 0 20 10 60
FYV 61 80 63 83 / 10 50 20 60
BYV 60 78 61 82 / 0 60 20 50
MKO 64 81 64 82 / 0 30 20 80
MIO 61 82 62 84 / 0 40 10 40
F10 63 82 63 81 / 0 30 20 90
HHW 65 82 66 80 / 10 30 40 90
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...67
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