117
FXUS64 KTSA 260450
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1142 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AREAWIDE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR LOCALLY DENSE
AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
TEXAS WILL MOVE NORTH OVER E OK AND NW AR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS THIS OCCURS AND RESULTS IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS MAY
LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NW AR. POOR WIND SHEAR WILL KEEP SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
VERY LOW, BUT LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP UNDER THE STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN MONDAY, BUT STILL NEAR AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH, ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND PIVOT
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEASTWARD LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER N TX/W OK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
TOWARD THE FA AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM SW TO NE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS A LOW
LEVEL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH
DAILY RAIN/STORM CHANCES PERSISTING INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE EXACT
PROGRESSION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINS
WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SUBTLE MESOSCALE FEATURES THROUGH LATE
WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE FEATURING INCREASED RIDGING MAY ALLOW FOR
DRIER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY JUNE, BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY AT THIS RANGE, WITH GENERALLY WEAK FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE.
THE NBM MAINTAINS AT LEAST LOW RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY, WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE FOR NOW.
WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS PWATS CLIMB TO
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS. FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO
BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. FOR THE MOST
PART, TEMPERATURES STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80 THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY TEND TO BE RELATIVELY
COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS WILL BE: THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND ANY HEAVY SHOWER AND/OR STORM THAT DRIFTS OVER THE
AERODROMES. LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MAY
LIMIT THE DURATION AND COVERAGE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS AT KFYV JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS OF THE AREA AROUND MID-LATE MORNING TUESDAY,
WITH LOW TO MEDIUM TSRA CHANCES PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE LOW CHANCE
OF A STORM ROLLS OVER ANY TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW EVENING.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 64 83 65 81 / 0 30 10 80
FSM 65 83 66 84 / 10 50 10 80
MLC 64 84 66 81 / 10 40 30 90
BVO 60 83 61 82 / 0 20 10 60
FYV 61 80 62 83 / 0 60 10 60
BYV 60 78 61 82 / 0 60 20 40
MKO 64 82 64 81 / 0 30 10 80
MIO 61 82 62 83 / 0 20 10 40
F10 63 83 64 80 / 10 30 20 90
HHW 65 83 67 79 / 10 30 40 80
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...67
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