252
FXUS64 KTSA 261731
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AREAWIDE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
BROAD TROUGHING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN US, WITH AN EMBEDDED
UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS IN THE
PROCESS OF BEING ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER TROUGH, BUT WILL STILL
HELP TO ENHANCE LIFT SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. GIVEN THE
DECENT MOISTURE LEVELS AND SOLID DAYTIME HEATING, SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING. DUE TO WEAK WIND
SHEAR, SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
NOTED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AR, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL THEN DIMINISH AFTER DARK, BUT MAY NOT TOTALLY
CEASE OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 80S,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS, ORIENTED NW-SE, WILL SLOWLY PIVOT THROUGH
THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OVER THIS PERIOD, HELPING TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL
LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. RATHER, WITH PWAT EXCEEDING 1.7"
AT TIMES, HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
WITH THAT SAID, CAM GUIDANCE AT LARGE IS NOT SUPER ENTHUSIASTIC.
ALTHOUGH CAM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN, AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, IT'S ALSO SHOWING LARGE SWATHS OF RELATIVELY
LITTLE ACTIVITY WITH LULLS IN BETWEEN WAVES. IN THE END, THIS IS
LIKELY GOING TO MEAN A FEW AREAS THAT GET FAIRLY DECENT RAIN
TOTALS, WITH OTHER AREAS SEEING RAIN, BUT NOT NECESSARILY
IMPRESSIVE TOTALS. OVERALL STORM TOTALS OF ROUGHLY 0.50-1.50
INCHES WILL BE COMMON, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
IN TERMS OF SPECIFICS, MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A WEST-EAST BAND
ON WEDNESDAY THAT LIFTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. GUIDANCE MOSTLY LEANS
TOWARDS BETTER CONSOLIDATION OF PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, COVERAGE, AND INTENSITY ITS HARD TO BE MORE
SPECIFIC THAN THAT. CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION IS HIGHER FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. KEPT
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NBM GUIDANCE AS IT APPEARS TOO WARM
GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. THE SYSTEM DRIVING
THE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK WILL MOVE OUT BY THIS WEEKEND, BUT A
GLANCING BLOW FROM ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY KICK OFF SOME
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD, BUT THERE IS A
DECENT ENSEMBLE SIGNAL THAT A COOL HIGH WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. IT MAY GET JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO SEND A BRIEF INTRUSION OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. THAT WOULD MEAN A CONTINUATION
OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT UNDER CLEARER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THIS IS A WEEK AWAY, AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
BEING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS, ALTHOUGH SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT KFYV AND KROG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 64 82 66 79 / 10 60 50 80
FSM 65 83 67 81 / 20 80 60 80
MLC 66 80 66 80 / 30 80 70 70
BVO 61 82 64 79 / 10 50 40 70
FYV 61 82 65 78 / 20 70 40 90
BYV 60 81 64 78 / 20 60 30 80
MKO 64 81 65 78 / 20 70 70 80
MIO 62 82 65 80 / 10 50 30 70
F10 64 81 64 78 / 20 70 50 80
HHW 66 78 66 80 / 50 60 60 60
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...05
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