565
FXUS64 KTSA 262346
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
646 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AREAWIDE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
BROAD TROUGHING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN US, WITH AN EMBEDDED
UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS IN THE
PROCESS OF BEING ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER TROUGH, BUT WILL STILL
HELP TO ENHANCE LIFT SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. GIVEN THE
DECENT MOISTURE LEVELS AND SOLID DAYTIME HEATING, SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING. DUE TO WEAK WIND
SHEAR, SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
NOTED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AR, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL THEN DIMINISH AFTER DARK, BUT MAY NOT TOTALLY
CEASE OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 80S,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS, ORIENTED NW-SE, WILL SLOWLY PIVOT THROUGH
THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OVER THIS PERIOD, HELPING TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL
LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. RATHER, WITH PWAT EXCEEDING 1.7"
AT TIMES, HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
WITH THAT SAID, CAM GUIDANCE AT LARGE IS NOT SUPER ENTHUSIASTIC.
ALTHOUGH CAM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN, AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, IT'S ALSO SHOWING LARGE SWATHS OF RELATIVELY
LITTLE ACTIVITY WITH LULLS IN BETWEEN WAVES. IN THE END, THIS IS
LIKELY GOING TO MEAN A FEW AREAS THAT GET FAIRLY DECENT RAIN
TOTALS, WITH OTHER AREAS SEEING RAIN, BUT NOT NECESSARILY
IMPRESSIVE TOTALS. OVERALL STORM TOTALS OF ROUGHLY 0.50-1.50
INCHES WILL BE COMMON, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
IN TERMS OF SPECIFICS, MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A WEST-EAST BAND
ON WEDNESDAY THAT LIFTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. GUIDANCE MOSTLY LEANS
TOWARDS BETTER CONSOLIDATION OF PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, COVERAGE, AND INTENSITY ITS HARD TO BE MORE
SPECIFIC THAN THAT. CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION IS HIGHER FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. KEPT
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NBM GUIDANCE AS IT APPEARS TOO WARM
GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. THE SYSTEM DRIVING
THE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK WILL MOVE OUT BY THIS WEEKEND, BUT A
GLANCING BLOW FROM ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY KICK OFF SOME
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD, BUT THERE IS A
DECENT ENSEMBLE SIGNAL THAT A COOL HIGH WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. IT MAY GET JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO SEND A BRIEF INTRUSION OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. THAT WOULD MEAN A CONTINUATION
OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT UNDER CLEARER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THIS IS A WEEK AWAY, AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF E OK AND NW AR THIS EVENING, WITH VSBYS LOCALLY REDUCED TO NEAR
2 MILES UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIP. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD LINGER
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR, BUT
OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER SUNSET. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOCATIONS
WHICH RECEIVED NOTABLE RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
VSBY REDUCTIONS, INCLUDING NW AR SITES. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF E OK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING, PERHAPS LEADING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KMLC. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 64 82 66 79 / 10 60 50 80
FSM 65 83 67 81 / 20 80 60 80
MLC 66 80 66 80 / 30 80 70 70
BVO 61 82 64 79 / 10 50 40 70
FYV 61 82 65 78 / 20 70 40 90
BYV 60 81 64 78 / 20 60 30 80
MKO 64 81 65 78 / 20 70 70 80
MIO 62 82 65 80 / 10 50 30 70
F10 64 81 64 78 / 20 70 50 80
HHW 66 78 66 80 / 50 60 60 60
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...43
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