853
FXUS64 KTSA 270604
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
104 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1237 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
- AREAWIDE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40-70%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WEAKNESS IN FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT-
TERM FORECAST. LATEST GOES-16 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NW-SE
ORIENTED TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST TX.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
SE OK CAUSED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO FORM ALONG IT
EARLIER THIS EVENING. WEAK FORCING AND LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING
HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NIGHT, THOUGH
A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK AND FAR NW AR.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE W-E ORIENTED BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY AND WILL ROTATE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAYTIME. LIKEWISE, THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAYTIME. HI-RES MODELS SHOW AN MCS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS TX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE FAR
NORTH SIDE OF THE MCS MAY DRIFT INTO FAR SE OK BEFORE SUNRISE.
LATEST 00Z RUNS FROM THE HRRR AND 3KM NAM HAVE AN MCV-LIKE
FEATURE/AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MCS LIFTING
NORTHWARD AND MOVING INTO FAR SE OK BY OR AROUND MIDDAY. BOTH THIS
FEATURE AND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND BETTER LOW/MID-LEVEL
ASCENT ANTICIPATED, CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE ROBUST COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS, INITIALLY ACROSS SE OK/W-C AR AND THEN LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO NE OK AND FAR NW AR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. TRENDS IN MODEL DATA SHOW CONVECTION LINGERING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN WEAK AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT A
FEW STRONG AND HEAVY (NON-SEVERE) THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES, EXCEEDING
1.7 INCHES AT TIMES, BY THE AFTERNOON AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS. NUISANCE/MINOR FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT
FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY A FEW DEGREES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH
COOLEST TEMPERATURE ACROSS SE OK WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
THICKEST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD, GENERALLY MID-
UPPER 60S.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM TO CHANGE GREATLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY, BUT MULTIPLE MID/UPPER-
LEVEL WAVES WILL CAUSE DAILY (AND NIGHTLY) HIT-AND-MISS-TYPE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS PWATS REMAINING BETWEEN
1.5-2.0 INCHES THROUGH THE LONG-TERM. WITH ABNORMALLY ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
WILL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACTS FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WITH PLENTY OF DISCREPANCIES IN FORECAST MODELS, IT REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS AND TIMES WHEN AND WHERE
RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVIEST. FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO BE
MAXIMIZED THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES STAY WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 80 THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY RELATIVELY COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF
THE LONG-TERM.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
PATCHY DENSE FOG ONGOING ACROSS FAR NW AR AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINS OCCURRED TUESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREADING TOWARD SE OK ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH MID MORNING, HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND
AN NOTABLE UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SPREAD GENERALLY SOUTH TO NORTH. FLIGHT IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING WED EVENING IN WAKE OF THE STORMS WITH A
CHANCE FOR CONTINUED FLIGHT IMPACTS INTO THE EVENING WITH LOWER
CEILINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 65 79 65 82 / 60 60 60 40
FSM 67 81 67 83 / 60 50 60 70
MLC 66 82 66 84 / 30 60 50 50
BVO 63 79 63 81 / 60 70 60 40
FYV 65 78 65 79 / 60 90 60 80
BYV 63 78 64 78 / 50 70 60 80
MKO 65 79 65 81 / 40 60 50 60
MIO 65 79 64 80 / 50 80 70 70
F10 64 80 64 83 / 40 50 50 50
HHW 66 82 66 84 / 40 40 40 40
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...07
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