317
FXUS64 KTSA 271551
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1051 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1047 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
- AREAWIDE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40-70%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE AREA TODAY.
AS IT DOES SO, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE BENEATH
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL ACT ON A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AS A RESULT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE LIKELY, PARTICULARLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
BETWEEN 0.25 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS IT BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONFINED TOWARDS CENTRAL OK WITH TIME. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE SITTING
NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT'S
COMMONLY THE CASE THAT THERE IS A LESS STORM ACTIVITY RIGHT UNDER
THE UPPER LOW, WITH BETTER FORCING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY, AS SUCH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS FAR
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR. EITHER WAY, IT WILL BE ANOTHER
TEMPERATE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE
SAME, EXCEPT THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT SLOWLY
CHURNS EASTWARD. IN THE END, IT WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS, EXCEPT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING POKES IN
FROM THE WEST.
ON SATURDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLIP THE AREA TO THE
NORTHWEST. IT WILL MOVE JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW/LIFT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED IN THE REGION. MODELS THEN DEVELOP RIDGING JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETTING IN. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT THERE IS
AT LEAST THE CHANCE OF A FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BECOME TOO STRONG FOR ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A MIX OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL IMPACT TERMINALS ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR THIS MORNING. A TREND TOWARD MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH AS THE BAND OF
CONVECTION LIFTS NORTH AND EXPECT MOST TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. THE DURATION OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS MORE UNCERTAIN. EXPECT LOW
STRATUS TO AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 81 65 79 65 / 70 80 70 40
FSM 83 67 82 66 / 90 80 50 30
MLC 81 66 82 66 / 90 50 40 30
BVO 82 64 78 62 / 60 80 80 40
FYV 82 65 78 64 / 60 70 70 50
BYV 81 64 76 63 / 50 70 70 50
MKO 80 65 79 65 / 80 80 50 40
MIO 83 66 78 64 / 50 70 80 60
F10 80 64 80 64 / 80 70 50 40
HHW 78 66 83 66 / 90 30 20 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07
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